SpaceX Stock Rallies as Q2 Earnings, $100B Unlock Loom

SPCX closed at $114.65, up 5.79% on the session, rebounding off a broad market rally ahead of the company's first-ever quarterly earnings report.

Executive Summary

SPCX snapped back on August 3, closing at $114.65 after opening at $106.42 and printing an intraday low of $104.83 before buyers pushed the stock to a session high of $114.92. The move came alongside a broad market rally: the Dow added roughly 560 points (up 1.1%), the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.8%, helped by falling oil prices after reports that Trump opted for diplomatic talks with Iran over military strikes, plus renewed optimism on AI spending following strong big-tech earnings. Coverage on the day also noted continued institutional interest, including a reported $26 million purchase by Cathie Wood's funds and the launch of a new Tesla/SpaceX joint ETF from Leverage Shares.

The larger backdrop is SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report as a public company, set for Tuesday, and an August 5 share-lockup expiration. Reporting noted the stock avoided a larger 456 million-share supply event because it remains too far below the IPO threshold that would have triggered it, leaving the smaller August 5 expiration as the near-term unlock event. Analyst sentiment stayed mixed heading into the print: RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating with a $225 price target, and other coverage cited a Wall Street average price target of $236.71, while Bill Ackman said he is passing on the stock over its roughly 75x sales valuation despite praising Starlink's profitability, and Charlie Bilello warned of a "painful reality check" after the more than 50% decline from the post-IPO high. Motley Fool coverage also flagged Elon Musk's 42% ownership and over 80% voting control, tied to a long-term roadmap spanning space data centers and Mars missions.

News

1. QUICK SPARK: SpaceX Tops Cathie Wood's Shopping List With $26 Million Bet Ahead Of First Earnings

Cathie Wood bought SpaceX again ahead of its first earnings, while boosting bets on Tesla, Nvidia, CoreWeave and other AI and defense stocks. (Benzinga, Aug 3, 4:30 PM ET)

2. QUICK SPARK: Tesla and SpaceX Get Joint ETF as Elon Musk Investing Trend Accelerates

Leverage Shares launches a new Tesla and SpaceX ETF, giving traders single-ticker exposure to Elon Musk's two innovation giants. (Benzinga, Aug 3, 3:54 PM ET)

3. SpaceX Could Swing $204 Billion After Earnings

Earnings set for tight window on Tuesday, Benzinga Pro data show options pricing 3.19% move for Pfizer and 5.15% for Amgen and Gilead Sciences. (Benzinga, Aug 3, 3:30 PM ET)

4. Elon Musk Reveals Why He Needs So Much Control of SpaceX

Elon Musk maintains 42% ownership and over 80% voting control of SpaceX to focus on long-term goals spanning 5-10 years, including space data centers and Mars missions. Despite a $28.5 trillion total addressable market outlined in its S-1 filing, SpaceX stock has proven volatile, dropping over 50% from June highs to below $109. The unprofitable company requires significant capital infusions, demanding patient investors willing to wait for long-term value realization. (The Motley Fool, Aug 3, 2:15 PM ET)

5. SpaceX Stock Faces Most Dangerous Moment Since IPO — Earnings and $100B Unlock Collide

SpaceX’s earnings and a massive $100 billion share unlock hit at once, creating a high‑stakes moment for a stock already down 50% and bracing for fresh volatility. (Benzinga, Aug 3, 1:46 PM ET)

6. The Dow Adds 560 Points as Oil Prices Fall Off a Cliff

Stock markets rallied on Monday with the Dow up 1.1% (~560 points), S&P 500 up 1.2%, and Nasdaq up 1.8%, driven by falling oil prices following Trump's decision to pursue diplomatic talks with Iran instead of military strikes, and renewed optimism around AI spending after strong earnings reports from major tech companies. (The Motley Fool, Aug 3, 1:04 PM ET)

7. Yen Intervention And Falling Oil Help Stocks, But Selling In Korea Throws A Monkey Wrench

Falling Oil

Please click here for an enlarged chart of United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO).

Note the following:

Understanding the moves in oil are very important because they have been directly impacting (Benzinga, Aug 3, 12:45 PM ET)

8. SpaceX Q2 Earnings Preview: Expert Says Report ‘Less About The Numbers and More About Elon Musk’s Vision’

SpaceX stock is on watch with the company's first ever quarterly financial report. Here's the key figures to watch and what to expect. (Benzinga, Aug 3, 11:28 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$106.42
High	$114.92
Low	$104.83
Close	$114.65
Change vs prior close	+5.79% (prior close $108.37)
Volume	61,796,891
Intraday range	$10.09
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	-15.07%

SPCX opened at $106.42, below Friday's $108.37 close, then dipped to $104.83 in the first part of the session before reversing higher and holding gains through the close at $114.65, a $10.09 intraday range. Volume came in at 61,796,891 shares, below the trailing average volume of 64,856,421 to date. The stock remains well below both its June 12 IPO offer price of $135.00 and its first-day close of $160.95.

Today's session was a broad-based reversal day: the stock opened below the prior close, found buyers at a fresh session low, and closed near the top of its range on below-average volume.

Technicals

SPCX has been public for less than two months (IPO June 12, 2026), so its technical history remains short. The 14-day RSI is calculable from the available closes but should be read with caution given the stock's compressed trading history and the sharp volatility since listing. The 20-day simple moving average is available; the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are not yet available because the stock does not have enough trading history to support them.

Trend

Daily closes show SPCX peaking near $201.80 on June 16, then grinding lower through late June and July to a low close of $108.37 on July 31 — a decline of roughly 46% from that peak. Today's close of $114.65 sits above both the 5-day SMA ($112.84) and 5-day EMA ($113.16), and is close to but still just below the 10-day SMA ($114.98). The close remains well below the 20-day SMA ($126.52), so while the very short-term trend is stabilizing after today's bounce, the medium-term (20-day) trend is still down.

Candle read

Today's candle has an $8.23 body against a $10.09 total range, with a small $0.27 upper wick and a larger $1.59 lower wick, and a close location value of 0.97 — meaning the close sat near the top of the day's range. That combination reads as a bullish candle: price was sold down early in the session (the lower wick), found demand, and buyers held control into the close, leaving only a small amount of selling pressure above the close.

Support levels

• $108.37 — prior close, which today's open ($106.42) traded below before the session reversed back above it
• $104.83 — today's intraday low
• $100.00 — nearest round-number level below today's low

Resistance levels

• $114.92–$114.98 — confluence of today's intraday high and the 10-day SMA
• $120.00 — nearest round-number level above the current close
• $126.52 — 20-day SMA
• $135.00 — IPO offer price
• $160.95 — IPO first-day close

Momentum interpretation

Bull scenario: a hold and close above the $114.92–$114.98 zone (today's high and the 10-day SMA) would open room toward the $120 round number and, further out, the 20-day SMA at $126.52.

Bear scenario: a slide back below $108.37 (prior close) would put today's low of $104.83 back in play, with the $100 round number as the next reference level below that.

Neutral scenario: continued chop between roughly $108.37 and $114.92 as the market awaits Tuesday's earnings report.

The 14-day RSI at 38.38 sits below the midpoint, consistent with momentum that has been bearish over the recent stretch, though it is not in oversold territory (below 30). The available "volume vs. average" reading of 0.54 also points to today's rebound occurring on relatively light participation versus the trailing baseline, which is worth weighing against the size of the price move.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX bounced 5.79% off a fresh post-IPO-adjacent low, reclaiming the prior close and closing near the session high, but on volume below the trailing average and against a 20-day trend that is still pointed down. The setup heads into a high-event-risk window: SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report is scheduled for Tuesday, and an August 5 share-lockup expiration follows immediately after (a larger 456 million-share unlock threshold was not triggered, per Monday's reporting, but the smaller expiration remains). For the next session, the key levels to watch are support at $108.37 and $104.83, and resistance at the $114.92–$114.98 zone.

Sources

1. QUICK SPARK: SpaceX Tops Cathie Wood's Shopping List With $26 Million Bet Ahead Of First Earnings — Benzinga
2. QUICK SPARK: Tesla and SpaceX Get Joint ETF as Elon Musk Investing Trend Accelerates — Benzinga
3. SpaceX Could Swing $204 Billion After Earnings — Benzinga
4. Elon Musk Reveals Why He Needs So Much Control of SpaceX — The Motley Fool
5. SpaceX Stock Faces Most Dangerous Moment Since IPO — Earnings and $100B Unlock Collide — Benzinga
6. The Dow Adds 560 Points as Oil Prices Fall Off a Cliff — The Motley Fool
7. Yen Intervention And Falling Oil Help Stocks, But Selling In Korea Throws A Monkey Wrench — Benzinga
8. SpaceX Q2 Earnings Preview: Expert Says Report 'Less About The Numbers and More About Elon Musk's Vision' — Benzinga
9. SpaceX Dodges 456 Million‑Share Supply Shock Ahead Of First-Ever Earnings — Benzinga
10. Bill Ackman Says "Never Bet Against Elon," Even as He Passes on SpaceX Stock. Here's Why He's Staying Out. — The Motley Fool
11. Amazon, Alphabet Lead 'AI Debt Tsunami' Now Blamed for 20-Year-High Rates — Benzinga
12. RBC Capital Reiterates Outperform on SpaceX, Maintains $225 Price Target — Benzinga
13. Forget Rockets. This Is The Real Reason Wall Street Can't Stop Buying SpaceX. — The Motley Fool
14. SpaceX Could Burn Through Billions More as Elon Musk Ramps Up AI Spending With Tesla: Analyst Says Free Cash Flow is 'Just Not Part of the Story' — Benzinga
15. Elon Musk's SpaceX Faces Its Biggest Public Test Yet As First Earnings Near — Benzinga
16. Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100 Futures Gain as Trump Halts 'Massive Attack' on Iran—Atkore, Alibaba, ArcelorMittal in Focus (UPDATED) — Benzinga
17. Elon Musk Says He's 'Not Against' Using Natural Gas as a Bridge to Solar, Backs Long-Term Role — Benzinga
18. SPCX Declines Over 50% From Post-IPO High: Charlie Bilello Warns of a 'Painful Reality Check' — Benzinga
19. If I Had $1,000 to Invest Today, Here's the Trillion-Dollar Stock I'd Buy Instead of SpaceX — The Motley Fool
20. Steve Hanke Says AI Won't Replace Workers Because It's 'Incredibly Costly:' 'Businesses Will Not Be Firing…' — Benzinga
21. Ross Gerber Says Tesla's FSD 'Almost' Caused an Accident While Passing Emergency Vehicles: 'Still Has Major Issues' — Benzinga
22. Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today? — Benzinga
23. Wall Street Questioned the AI Boom, Earnings Are Delivering: Here Are the ETFs You Should Watch Closely — Benzinga
24. Ahead of SpaceX Earnings, Jeffries Says Investors Avoiding SPCX Over Governance Are Missing the Bigger Picture — Benzinga
25. SpaceX Buying Tesla's Robots and Cabs Would Allow Tesla to Be an 'EV Company' Again, Says Ross Gerber: Analyst Dwells on Elon Musk's China 'Issue' — Benzinga
26. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Market data and figures are sourced as cited above and may be delayed or subject to revision. Readers should verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. SPCX has a limited public trading history, and technical indicators referenced here carry additional uncertainty as a result.