Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage With Outperform, $190 Target

SPCX closed at $184.97, down $6.85 (-3.57%) from Wednesday's close of $191.82, on volume of 189.6 million shares.

Executive Summary

SPCX extended its retreat from the June 16 closing peak of $201.80 on Thursday, falling 3.57% while the Nasdaq gained 1.69% on a U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement and an Apple-Intel semiconductor partnership announcement. The underperformance against a broadly rising market is notable in the stock's first week of trading: since reaching a closing high of $201.80 six sessions into its public life, SPCX has now declined in two consecutive sessions to $184.97, roughly 8.3% below that peak while still trading 37% above its $135 IPO offer price.

Thursday's session was defined by a sharp intraday selloff to $172.11 that recovered significantly before the close, leaving the stock at $184.97. Commentary throughout the day centered on several near-term overhangs: a public float estimated at approximately 5% of total shares, an unusual lockup structure that could permit insider sales as early as August if Q2 earnings are reported by then, a reported bond sale of at least $20 billion being prepared by SpaceX's bankers, and valuation debate that is wide and unsettled. On the bullish side, Arete initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $401 price target, and Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating and raised its target to $250. Russell index inclusion was also confirmed for today, which mechanically adds forced buying from passive funds tracking those benchmarks.

News

1. 2 Reasons Investors Should Not Short SpaceX Stock

The article argues against short-selling SpaceX stock despite its high valuation (P/S ratio of ~135x). SpaceX's dominance in satellite internet through Starlink and private space launches creates competitive moats that make it difficult for shorts to profit. Additionally, overvalued stocks can remain elevated for extended periods, as demonstrated by Palantir, and short positions carry unlimited loss potential. (The Motley Fool, Jun 18, 6:25 PM ET)

2. SpaceX Had The Best IPO In History—Now Comes The Hard Part

SpaceX (SPCX) completed the largest IPO in history at $135, surging to $225 before dropping 9% to $174. The company immediately announced a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor (an AI coding tool) using stock and is preparing a $20 billion bond sale. With only 5% of shares trading due to lockups expiring in December 2026, the stock faces significant supply events around Q2 earnings in September. While the underlying business is strong, the stock appears overvalued relative to fundamentals, trading on optionality rather than verified earnings. (Benzinga, Jun 18, 5:46 PM ET)

3. Holding SpaceX Since The IPO? Why I'd Use The Strength To Sell

If you're holding SpaceX shares from the IPO or Day One, I'd use the strength to sell. Here's why... (Benzinga, Jun 18, 5:41 PM ET)

4. How Much Could $1,000 in SpaceX Stock Be Worth in 3 Years?

SpaceX's IPO saw strong first-day gains of 19%, but historical data suggests mega-IPOs underperform the market by 5.3 percentage points over three years. With SpaceX trading at over 100 times sales despite only 33% year-over-year revenue growth, the stock is priced for perfection. The analyst expects the stock to underperform the market once the initial FOMO subsides, potentially losing several hundred dollars on a $1,000 investment within three years. (The Motley Fool, Jun 18, 4:05 PM ET)

5. SpaceX's ETF Takeover Begins: From Value Funds To Thematic ETFs, SPCX Is Suddenly Everywhere

SpaceX's public debut is reshaping ETFs, with funds from space-focused portfolios to Schwab's value ETF adding SPCX to their holdings. (Benzinga, Jun 18, 3:57 PM ET)

6. 3 Space Stocks to Buy Now That SpaceX Is Off the Table

(Benzinga, Jun 18, 3:56 PM ET)

7. Goldman Sachs Says SpaceX Could Hit $474 Billion in Revenue by 2030. Here Are the 3 AI Stocks That Benefit Most.

Goldman Sachs forecasts SpaceX will generate $474 billion in total revenue by 2030, with $322 billion from its AI division. Three companies stand to benefit significantly: Nvidia will supply advanced chips for SpaceX's data centers, Alphabet holds a 5-6% stake and rents computing capacity, and Tesla will benefit from a shared semiconductor manufacturing facility (Terafab) with SpaceX. (The Motley Fool, Jun 18, 3:30 PM ET)

8. Mark Your Calendar: SpaceX Stock Could Look Very Different After Earnings

SpaceX's first earnings report is expected in late July or early August following its record-breaking IPO. While the stock has surged 30% since its debut, Morningstar analysts warn it may be significantly overvalued at current levels. Investors will be watching for CEO Elon Musk's commentary on Starlink growth, Starship megarocket progress, and how the company plans to deploy its $75 billion in fresh capital, particularly in AI infrastructure and orbital data centers. (The Motley Fool, Jun 18, 2:30 PM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$188.34
High	$190.00
Low	$172.11
Close	$184.97
Change vs prior close	-$6.85 (-3.57%)
Volume	189,573,356
Intraday range	$17.89
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	+$49.97 (+37.0%)

SPCX opened at $188.34 and briefly touched a session high of $190.00 before selling off sharply to a low of $172.11, then recovered to close at $184.97. The $17.89 intraday range reflects the elevated volatility that has characterized SPCX since its debut, with the stock moving sharply in both directions within the same session. Volume of 189.6 million shares came in at approximately 63% of the average daily volume since the IPO, a notable step down from the heavier institutional and retail flows of the first few sessions.

From the daily close history, Thursday marks the second consecutive down close from the June 16 peak of $201.80. The two-session decline totals $16.83, or roughly 8.3% from that high. The stock closed 37.0% above its IPO offer price and 14.9% above its first-day close of $160.95.

The 5-day SMA and EMA both stand at $186.41, just above Thursday's close of $184.97. The stock ended the day fractionally below its very short-term moving average, a mild negative signal on a limited data set. Thursday's session underperformed the Nasdaq by approximately 5.3 percentage points, continuing a pattern of SPCX declining on days when the broader market rallies.

The key story of the session is the intraday low and recovery: the stock fell nearly $16 from open to the $172.11 trough, then buyers pushed it back approximately $12.86 to the close, with the close settling 72% of the way from the session low to the session high.

Technicals

SPCX has six trading sessions in its history as of June 18, 2026. Indicators requiring 10 or more days of price history — including RSI-14, SMA-10, SMA-20, SMA-50, and SMA-200 — are not yet computable and are not reported here. The following analysis is drawn entirely from price structure, candle shape, volume, and verifiable traded levels.

Trend

The trend from the IPO offer price remains positive: the stock priced at $135, has not closed below that level, and stands 37% above it. The trend from the June 16 closing peak of $201.80 is downward: two consecutive lower closes followed the peak. The 5-day SMA and EMA at $186.41 sit just above Thursday's close, and the stock ending the day below those averages is a mild short-term negative. With five prior closes to analyze, trend assessment is necessarily limited to these near-term structural observations.

Candle read

Thursday's candle has a bearish body of $3.37 (open $188.34, close $184.97), a small upper wick of $1.66 (high $190.00), and a long lower wick of $12.86 (low $172.11). The close location is 0.72, meaning the close settled 72% of the way from the session low to the session high. The structure shows that sellers pushed the stock sharply lower from the open, but buyers absorbed that pressure decisively enough to recover most of the intraday loss. The upper wick is minimal, indicating the open was effectively the session ceiling. The long lower wick relative to the body is the dominant feature: despite the down close, the stock's recovery from $172.11 to $184.97 represents a meaningful intraday demand signal. One session does not establish a pattern in a stock with six days of history, and the candle should be read in the context of continued heavy news flow and an unresolved valuation debate.

Support levels

The nearest support is the intraday low of $172.11 from Thursday's session, where buying emerged and held. Below that, the June 12 first-day close of $160.95 is the next structural reference, representing where the stock began its post-IPO run and the level at which early secondary-market buyers are breakeven. The IPO offer price of $135 is the foundational floor below which all IPO participants would be at a loss. The round number at $175 falls between today's intraday low and the first-day close and may function as a near-term reference, though it is not anchored to a specific traded level.

Resistance levels

The 5-day SMA and EMA at $186.41 sit just above Thursday's close and represent the first level to reclaim for short-term trend pressure to stabilize. Above that, Wednesday's close of $191.82 is the immediate overhead level from the prior session. The June 15 close of $192.50 clusters closely with Wednesday's prior close. The June 16 closing peak of $201.80 is the primary upside reference for the current trading range. Thursday's session high of $190.00 now functions as resistance given the price's failure to hold above it, and it coincides with a round number.

Momentum interpretation

With RSI-14 unavailable, momentum is assessed from price structure and relative close location. The close at 0.72 of the daily range is constructive on a single-session basis but sits within a two-day declining trend from the June 16 peak.

Bull scenario: if SPCX reclaims $186.41 (the 5-day SMA and EMA) on the next session and holds above it, the short-term selling pressure may be slowing. A close above $191.82 would return the stock to Wednesday's level and suggest the pullback from the peak is stabilizing. The long lower wick from Thursday is consistent with this reading and would gain more weight if confirmed by a positive session on Friday.

Bear scenario: if Thursday's intraday low of $172.11 is broken on a subsequent session, it would indicate that the demand visible in the lower wick was insufficient to establish a floor, and the $160.95 first-day close becomes the next structural reference. The stock's consistent underperformance against the broader market over two sessions, its position below the 5-day SMA, and the August lockup and bond sale overhangs are near-term headwinds.

Neutral scenario: the stock consolidates between roughly $172 and $190 as early IPO float trades through and the market waits for the first earnings report. Multiple analysts cited the Q2 earnings release, expected in late July or early August, as the next major fundamental reset for valuation discussion.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX declined 3.57% on Thursday against a market that rallied, continuing the retreat from the June 16 closing peak of $201.80. The session's structure — a sharp intraday selloff to $172.11 followed by a recovery to close at $184.97, with the close at 72% of the day's range — suggests that sellers who pressed the stock lower found buyers at the intraday lows. That is a relatively constructive single-session signal but does not change the two-day declining trend from the peak.

The stock carries several near-term structural overhangs that are not resolved by Thursday's close: the small public float, the reported August lockup mechanics tied to Q2 earnings timing, the preparation of a bond sale of at least $20 billion, Russell index rebalancing flows that may be completing, and a valuation that analysts currently place anywhere from below the IPO price to multiples above current levels. The first earnings report remains the next identifiable fundamental catalyst.

Key levels for the next session: $186.41 (5-day SMA) is the minimum to reclaim for short-term trend stabilization; $172.11 is the level to hold on the downside; $191.82 and $192.50 are the near-term overhead cluster. SPCX's behavior relative to the broader market on days when the tape is up will remain an important signal for whether post-IPO momentum is finishing its reset or resuming a downtrend.

Sources

1. 2 Reasons Investors Should Not Short SpaceX Stock — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
2. SpaceX Had The Best IPO In History—Now Comes The Hard Part — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
3. Holding SpaceX Since The IPO? Why I'd Use The Strength To Sell — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
4. How Much Could $1,000 in SpaceX Stock Be Worth in 3 Years? — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
5. SpaceX's ETF Takeover Begins: From Value Funds To Thematic ETFs, SPCX Is Suddenly Everywhere — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
6. 3 Space Stocks to Buy Now That SpaceX Is Off the Table — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
7. Goldman Sachs Says SpaceX Could Hit $474 Billion in Revenue by 2030. Here Are the 3 AI Stocks That Benefit Most. — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
8. Mark Your Calendar: SpaceX Stock Could Look Very Different After Earnings — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
9. SpaceX Stock Is Down Again Today. Is Now the Time to Buy? — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
10. S&P 500 Bounces Back; Dow Largely Sits This One Out — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
11. Stock Market Today, June 18: Intel Surges As Market Gains on U.S.-Iran Agreement — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
12. Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage On SpaceX with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $190 — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
13. Oppenheimer Maintains Outperform on SpaceX, Raises Price Target to $250 — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
14. 'SpaceX Bankers Preparing for Bond Sale of at Least $20 Billion' - Bloomberg — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
15. Billionaire Ron Baron Put $1 Billion Into SpaceX at the IPO. Here's Why He Calls It "The Largest Company on the Planet" in the Making. — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
16. SpaceX Surges Past Taiwan Semiconductor to Become the World's 6th Most Valuable Company. Is It Too Late to Buy? — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
17. Why Sandisk Stock Just Jumped — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
18. The SpaceX IPO Frenzy Is Fading. Here's What That Means for Investors Watching From the Sidelines. — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
19. Did SpaceX Stock Deserve to Drop Today? — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
20. Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100 Futures Jump After Sharp Sell-Off On Fed Rates Pause — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
21. SpaceX's First Week On The Market: The Biggest Developments Investors Should Know — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
22. SpaceX Joins Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Taiwan Semiconductor in the $2 Trillion Club. But Will It Last? — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
23. Here's What SpaceX's Record Stock Market Debut Can Tell Us About OpenAI and Anthropic's Planned IPOs — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
24. Up Almost 50% From Its IPO Price, Could SpaceX Early Investors Sell 37% of Their Shares in August? — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
25. Elizabeth Warren Says Every 4-Year-Old In America Could Get Health Care If Elon Musk Did This — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
26. SpaceX Can Be Added to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 After Today -- Don't Take the Bait — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
27. Jim Cramer Says SpaceX 'Could Not Maintain Its Meme Status' As Rally Stalls: 'Too Many Sellers' — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
28. Tom Sosnoff Says SPCX Stock Will Fall Below Its IPO Price, Explains Why He Sold SpaceX 'At 158' — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
29. SpaceX Made Elon Musk a Trillionaire. Can SpaceX Stock Make You a Millionaire? (Hint: Yes, but There's a Catch) — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
30. Is the SpaceX IPO Enough to Rescue Robinhood Stock? — The Motley Fool, June 18, 2026
31. Elon Musk, The World's First Trillionaire, Holds Bitcoin And 'Some' Dogecoin — 'Let That Sink In,' Says Popular Analyst — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
32. Elon Musk Nears 20% Voting Power In Tesla After Exercising Stock Options — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
33. Gary Black Says SpaceX's 'Meme Stock' Run 'May Be Ending, Despite Bulls Having Their 'I Told You So' Moment — Benzinga, June 18, 2026
34. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All market data is sourced from Alpaca Markets via the SIP feed and is reported as received. News descriptions are drawn from third-party sources as cited and have not been independently verified. Past price action is not predictive of future results. Always verify information independently before making any financial decision.