SpaceX Nasdaq 100 Inclusion Could Be Announced Tonight

SPCX closed at $152.74 on June 26, 2026, down $0.26 from the prior session's close of $153.00 and 5.1% below the $160.95 first-day close.

Executive Summary

SPCX spent its tenth trading session continuing the controlled slide that has defined the stock since its June 16 peak. The day carried a material potential catalyst: CNBC's Seema Mody reported, citing two sources, that SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 could be announced as early as Friday evening. That news drove the stock from its open of $150.62 to a session high of $158.40, but sellers stepped in before the close and SPCX gave back most of the move, ending at $152.74. The session closed fractionally below Wednesday's $153.00 close on volume of 66.8 million shares, roughly 32% of the post-IPO daily average of 210.7 million shares.

The news backdrop was dense and contradictory. On the constructive side, SpaceX was among the winners in the FCC's $3.5 billion wireless spectrum auction, and separate reporting confirmed plans for a Starlink retail mobile service that would compete directly with major US carriers. The FTC also approved Elon Musk's acquisition of Mesh Optical Technologies. Against that, Argus Research initiated coverage with a Hold rating, Morningstar published a $62 fair value estimate against the current price, and SpaceX's bond market reportedly absorbed a $305 million loss in a matter of days. Broader AI and tech sentiment was also under pressure after reports surfaced that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 to pursue a higher valuation, triggering a selloff in AI-adjacent names. The net result was a range-bound session with an early spike and a failed attempt to hold the intraday high.

News

1. Private Equity's Exit Window May Finally Be Reopening And Spacex Could Be The Catalyst

Private equity firms may finally be getting what they've been waiting for: a functioning IPO market. The catalyst could be SpaceX. (Benzinga, Jun 26, 3:38 PM ET)

2. Rocket Lab Just Shattered This Space Force Record: Does That Make The Stock a Buy?

Rocket Lab achieved a record-breaking 16-hour turnaround for a Space Force mission and activated its spacecraft in 37 hours, beating the 72-hour deadline. While the achievement demonstrates operational excellence and suggests a bright future, the stock remains expensive at 51x current sales and has experienced a 40% pullback. Analysts project 39.5% revenue CAGR through 2028, but competition from SpaceX's Starship and market volatility pose risks. (The Motley Fool, Jun 26, 3:19 PM ET)

3. U.S. Federal Trade Commission Grants Approval To Elon Musk To Acquire Mesh Optical Technologies Corporation

(Benzinga, Jun 26, 3:19 PM ET)

4. CNBC’s Seema Mody Posts On X "We're hearing from two sources that Spacex's inclusion into the Nasdaq 100 could be announced as early as tonight"

(Benzinga, Jun 26, 3:18 PM ET)

5. What a $10,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Return by 2030

SpaceX went public at $135 per share in June 2026 with a $1.77 trillion valuation but now trades around $150. While bulls expect exponential growth in aerospace and AI, bears cite overvaluation at 109x sales and unprofitability. The analyst projects a more realistic 30% CAGR through 2030, resulting in only a 2% return on a $10,000 investment, suggesting investors should wait for quarterly results before investing heavily. (The Motley Fool, Jun 26, 3:18 PM ET)

6. Bitcoin, SpaceX Or The S&P 500? Readers Snubbed Buffett-less Berkshire — But Who Won?

Benzinga viewers make their pick for a preferred investment for the second half of 2026. (Benzinga, Jun 26, 3:14 PM ET)

7. SpaceX Might Soon Launch a Starlink Mobile Internet Service, Competing Directly With AT&T and Verizon

SpaceX is considering launching a Starlink retail mobile service to compete directly with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. The company's Connectivity division, which includes Starlink, is already profitable with $11.38 billion in revenue and $4.42 billion in operating income in 2025. By operating its own mobile retail business, SpaceX could leverage its satellite network to avoid costly infrastructure like poles and cables, potentially disrupting the $1.6 trillion U.S. communications industry. (The Motley Fool, Jun 26, 3:14 PM ET)

8. OpenAI Just Signaled It Might Delay Its IPO. AI Stocks Are Tumbling. Is the Bubble Bursting?

Reports that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until 2027 to achieve a $1 trillion valuation sparked a selloff in AI and chip stocks. OpenAI's $600 billion computing capacity commitments underpin much of the AI industry's expected demand, so hesitation to go public raises questions about the durability of AI spending. However, signed deals and strong recent chip demand suggest the AI build-out still has momentum, though valuations leave little room for error if spending slows. (The Motley Fool, Jun 26, 3:03 PM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$150.62
High	$158.40
Low	$148.51
Close	$152.74
Change vs prior close	-$0.26 (-0.17%)
Volume	66,832,100
Intraday range	$9.89
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	+$17.74 (+13.1%)

SPCX opened near the prior close, ran to $158.40 on the Nasdaq 100 inclusion report in early trading, reversed through the open to a session low of $148.51, then recovered to close at $152.74 near the midpoint of the day's range. The full intraday swing covered $9.89. Volume at 66.8 million shares was 32% of the post-IPO daily average, continuing a pattern of steadily declining participation as the initial speculative rush dissipates.

At $152.74, the stock sits 13.1% above the $135 IPO offer price and 5.1% below the $160.95 first-day close. The close history since the IPO traces a clear arc: a surge from $160.95 on June 12 to a peak close of $201.80 on June 16, followed by a sustained decline over six sessions that has retraced more than half of that post-IPO gain, with the last four closes compressed tightly between $152.74 and $156.11.

The morning spike to $158.40 and the failure to hold it is the defining event of the session. That level will be watched as an established near-term ceiling.

Technicals

SPCX has been publicly traded for ten sessions. RSI-14 and the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages are not yet computable from the available price history and carry no meaningful signal at this depth. The analysis below relies on price structure, candle anatomy, the short-term averages that are now available, and real session-high and session-low levels.

Trend

The trend since June 16 is down. A peak close of $201.80 has resolved in a series of lower closes, ending today at $152.74. The 5-day SMA at $154.20 is above the close, as is the EMA-5 at $157.95 and the SMA-10 at $170.31. Price is below all three available moving averages — a uniformly bearish short-term alignment. The pace of the decline has slowed markedly over the last four sessions, with the range of closes tightening from $154.60 to $152.74, which could indicate exhaustion of sellers at this level or simply a low-volume drift pending a catalyst.

Candle read

Today's candle is bullish in body — open $150.62, close $152.74, body of $2.12 — but its shape tells a different story. The upper wick of $5.66 is more than 2.5 times the body length, and the lower wick of $2.11 nearly matches the body. The close location of 0.43 places the close in the lower half of the day's range, meaning the stock recovered from its low but gave back the majority of its intraday advance before the bell. In the context of the current downtrend, this candle pattern — small body, disproportionately long upper shadow — signals that buyers emerged intraday on the Nasdaq 100 catalyst but did not have sufficient conviction to hold the gains. The pattern reinforces $158.40 as a level where sellers are positioned.

Support levels

• $148.51: today's session low, the first level where buyers stepped in. A close below this mark would represent a new multi-session low for SPCX and would likely invite additional selling.
• $150.00: the round number that also corresponds to the stock's open; intraday price action confirmed buyers around the $148-$150 zone.
• $135.00: the IPO offer price. No price action has tested this level, but it is the structural psychological floor for the stock. Prediction market data noted in today's reporting suggests growing skepticism that this level will hold over time.

Resistance levels

• $154.20: the SMA-5, sitting just above the close. Closing above this level would be the minimum prerequisite for stabilizing the short-term trend.
• $156.11: the June 23 close, representing a recent recovery attempt within the current consolidation band.
• $158.40: today's rejected intraday high. This is the most immediately relevant overhead level — tested, sold, and now established as near-term supply.
• $160.95: the IPO first-day close. Reclaiming this level on a closing basis would be the first meaningful evidence of trend reversal.
• $185.00: the June 18 close, representing the last foothold before the sharp decline accelerated.

Momentum interpretation

Bull scenario — levels to watch: A confirmed Nasdaq 100 inclusion announcement over the weekend would introduce mechanical index-rebalancing demand that is independent of current valuation debates. In that scenario, watch for SPCX to open above $158.40 and attempt to close above $160.95. Sustained closes above the IPO first-day close would reestablish that level as support and shift the near-term structure.

Bear scenario — levels to watch: If no Nasdaq 100 announcement materializes and the stock opens lower Monday, a close below $148.51 opens the way toward the $135 IPO offer price. Multiple analyst and media pieces today called the current valuation unsupportable, Polymarket bettors were reported as increasingly skeptical that the stock holds above $135, and the SpaceX bond market's reported $305 million loss suggests credit investors have repriced risk ahead of equity markets. Continued sub-average volume on down moves does not indicate strong buying conviction at current levels.

Neutral: for three consecutive sessions the stock has closed between $152.74 and $154.60, a range of under $2 on declining volume. The market appears to be waiting on a binary outcome — Nasdaq 100 inclusion or not — before committing to a directional move. The next session's open will likely be the first data point that resolves which scenario is in play.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX is range-bound between approximately $148 and $158, with the close sitting at $152.74 and volume at 32% of the post-IPO daily average. Today's session validated $158.40 as near-term resistance and $148.51 as near-term support. The Nasdaq 100 inclusion report was the session's dominant catalyst and produced an early move that fully reversed, suggesting the market is not yet willing to price in the inclusion without confirmation.

Key levels for the next session: to the upside, $154.20 (SMA-5) and $158.40 (today's rejected high); to the downside, $148.51 (today's low) and the $135 IPO offer price as the structural floor. The index inclusion outcome over the weekend is the single variable most likely to determine the direction of Monday's open.

Sources

1. Private Equity's Exit Window May Finally Be Reopening And Spacex Could Be The Catalyst — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
2. Rocket Lab Just Shattered This Space Force Record: Does That Make The Stock a Buy? — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
3. U.S. Federal Trade Commission Grants Approval To Elon Musk To Acquire Mesh Optical Technologies Corporation — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
4. CNBC's Seema Mody Posts On X "We're hearing from two sources that Spacex's inclusion into the Nasdaq 100 could be announced as early as tonight" — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
5. What a $10,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Return by 2030 — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
6. Bitcoin, SpaceX Or The S&P 500? Readers Snubbed Buffett-less Berkshire — But Who Won? — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
7. SpaceX Might Soon Launch a Starlink Mobile Internet Service, Competing Directly With AT&T and Verizon — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
8. OpenAI Just Signaled It Might Delay Its IPO. AI Stocks Are Tumbling. Is the Bubble Bursting? — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
9. Europe's Reckoning: SpaceX's Record IPO Exposes the Continent's Space Gap — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
10. Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, SpaceX Among Winners In FCC $3.5B Wireless Auction — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
11. 'Who Are These Lunatics?' CoreWeave's Credit Approach Gets A Pep Talk From The 'Dean Of Valuation' — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
12. The Perfect Storm: SpaceX Bond Traders Stunned As $305 Million Vanishes In Days — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
13. OpenAI IPO Reportedly Delayed To 2027: 'There's No Rational Argument' For $1 Trillion Valuation, Says Gary Marcus — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
14. Is SpaceX Overvalued Right Now? — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
15. Why Advanced Micro Devices Stock Slipped on Friday — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
16. What's Going On With SpaceX Stock Friday? — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
17. Jeff Bezos' 2016 'Lottery Ticket' Warning Comes True As Blue Origin Workers Miss Out On SpaceX-Style IPO Windfall — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
18. Argus Research Initiates Coverage On SpaceX with Hold Rating — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
19. Quantum Cyber Stock Rises After Board Approves Acquisition of SpaceX Equity Stake — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
20. Beyond Rockets: SpaceX's Real Growth Story Is Its AI Infrastructure Business — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
21. Quantum Cyber Board Approves Engaging Investment Bankers To Acquire An Equity Stake In SpaceX — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
22. Why Is Triller Group Stock Surging On Friday? — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
23. Staying Away From SpaceX? Here Are 3 Other Stocks That Can Boost Your Portfolio's Satellite Economy Exposure. — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
24. Could Elon Musk's SpaceX Buy T-Mobile? Analyst Sees Wireless Giant As 'Clear Choice' — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
25. What Will SpaceX's Share Price Be by the End of 2027? Here's My History-Driven Prediction. — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
26. Why Synaptics Shares Are Trading Higher By Over 5%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
27. SpaceX Stock Holding Above $135 IPO Price Is An Unlikely Outcome For Prediction Market Bettors As SPCX Plunges 32% From Peak — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
28. 'Elon Musk's SpaceX Plans Starlink Mobile Push Into US Consumer Market' - FT — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
29. Exposure To Elon Musk's SpaceX Is Sending Triller Group Stock Soaring After Hours: Here's What You Should Know — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
30. Morningstar's Fair Value for SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Is $62. The Stock Trades at $157. One of Them Is Wrong by $1.2 Trillion. — The Motley Fool, June 26, 2026
31. Elon Musk Should 'Consider Selling EVs Again,' Says Ross Gerber As TSLA Stock Declines — Benzinga, June 26, 2026
32. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All price and volume data is sourced from Alpaca Markets (SIP feed); news is sourced from the outlets credited above. Verify all figures independently before making any financial decisions. Past price action is not indicative of future results.