Slips Despite Data Center Doubts as Lock-Up Looms

SPCX closed at $118.28 on July 23, 2026, up 2.62% versus the prior close of $115.26.

Executive Summary

SPCX snapped a run of declines on Wednesday, closing at $118.28 for a 2.62% gain after trading as low as $110.85 intraday. The bounce came on volume of 67.03 million shares, below both the trailing average (78.37 million) and the prior session's 92.83 million, suggesting the rebound was not accompanied by a surge in participation. The session's news flow was mixed: SpaceX pushed Starship's thirteenth test flight to July 24 due to weather, while a Motley Fool piece flagged that lock-up agreements begin expiring in August, potentially freeing roughly 911 million pre-IPO shares and doubling the public float to 12%, with the stock already down sharply from its post-IPO peak.

Elsewhere, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest reportedly added $15 million to its SPCX position while trimming $10 million of Robinhood, and Tesla's Q2 report showed a non-cash gain on its SpaceX stake accounting for roughly 69% of Tesla's GAAP profit, underscoring SpaceX's growing visibility inside other public companies' earnings. Trader Tom Sosnoff was quoted noting the drawdown is consistent with the historical tendency of IPOs to underperform in their early months. None of this changes the technical picture directly, but it frames the volume and price context for the day's move.

News

1. SpaceX Targets July 24 For Starship's Thirteenth Test Flight Due To Weather Conditions

(Benzinga, Jul 23, 4:12 PM ET)

2. Musk Touted Data Centers in Space to SpaceX IPO Investors. Peter Zeihan Calls the Idea 'So Many Levels of Dumb'

SpaceX pitched orbital data centers to IPO investors, but analyst Peter Zeihan says the physics don't add up. Kalshi traders lean his way. (Benzinga, Jul 23, 3:05 PM ET)

3. Trump Jr.'s Investment Firm Posts 200% Returns, Helped by Polymarket's Meteoric Rise

Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital posted 200% returns, fueled by a massive early bet on Polymarket and pre-IPO stakes. (Benzinga, Jul 23, 2:42 PM ET)

4. Why Is Robinhood Stock Falling on Thursday?

Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) stock declines on Thursday due to tech market pullbacks, recent ARK Invest portfolio shifts and upcoming Q2 earnings. (Benzinga, Jul 23, 1:44 PM ET)

5. A Lot More SpaceX Shares Are About to Come Onto the Market

SpaceX's lock-up agreements will begin expiring in August, allowing pre-IPO shareholders to sell approximately 911 million shares, potentially doubling the public float to 12%. This insider selling could create downward pressure on the stock, which has already declined 47% from its $225 peak to trade below its $135 IPO price. Additional tranches of shares will be released through December, with Elon Musk and other major investors subject to a one-year lock-up. (The Motley Fool, Jul 23, 1:12 PM ET)

6. Cathie Wood Swaps Robinhood for SpaceX, Archer—Did ARK Pivot Back to Moonshot Innovation?

Cathie Wood sold $10M of Robinhood while adding $15M to SpaceX and boosting Archer Aviation. Here's what ARK Invest's ETF rotation signals. (Benzinga, Jul 23, 12:10 PM ET)

7. SpaceX Stock’s Hidden Risk Isn’t Rockets — It’s AI Spending

SpaceX stock faces risks as Starship reaches launchpad, but the bigger threat may be AI spending. (Benzinga, Jul 23, 12:08 PM ET)

8. Alphabet Just Posted a Monster Quarter. The Stock Dropped Anyway. Time to Buy the Stock?

Alphabet reported strong Q2 results with 24% revenue growth and 82% Google Cloud growth, beating estimates across the board. However, the stock fell 7% after management raised capex guidance by $15 billion to $195-$205 billion, citing heavy infrastructure investments needed to meet AI demand. Despite concerns about cash burn, the company's $514 billion backlog and forward P/E of 21.3x suggest the spending targets confirmed demand rather than speculation, potentially presenting a buying opportunity for long-term investors. (The Motley Fool, Jul 23, 11:20 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$115.18
High	$118.55
Low	$110.85
Close	$118.28
Change vs prior close	+$3.02 (+2.62%)
Volume	67,029,322
Intraday range	$7.70 ($110.85 - $118.55)
Close vs IPO offer ($135.00)	-12.39%
Close vs IPO-day close ($160.95)	-26.52%

SPCX opened at $115.18, essentially flat to the prior close of $115.26, then sold off to an intraday low of $110.85 before reversing sharply to close near the session high at $118.28. Volume of 67.03 million shares came in below the 78.37 million trailing average and well below the prior session's 92.83 million, indicating the rebound occurred on lighter turnover than recent selling pressure. The stock remains well below both its $135.00 IPO offer price and its $160.95 first-day close.

Today's close near the session high on below-average volume is the standout feature of the tape.

Technicals

SPCX has been public for roughly six weeks. With only a few dozen daily closes on record, the 14-day RSI and the 20/50/200-day moving averages that traders normally lean on for a mature name are either not yet available or not yet statistically meaningful here (SMA-50 and SMA-200 are both unavailable due to insufficient history). The read below leans on price structure, candle shape, volume, and the real levels present in the data rather than on longer-horizon averages.

Trend

The stock has been in a persistent downtrend since peaking at a $201.80 close on June 16, 2026, four sessions after the June 12 IPO. Closes fell in a mostly uninterrupted slide from that peak through $115.26 on July 22, the lowest close in the stock's short trading history. Short-term moving averages confirm the downtrend's structure: the 5-day SMA ($120.18) sits below the 10-day SMA ($128.78), which sits below the 20-day SMA ($142.95) — a stacked bearish alignment. Today's bounce interrupts, but does not yet reverse, that sequence.

Candle read

Today's candle has a body of $3.10, an upper wick of just $0.27, and a lower wick of $4.33, on a total range of $7.70. The close sits at 96% of the day's range (closeLocation 0.96) — a candle that opened, was pushed down toward $110.85, and then reversed to close almost at the day's high. That shape (small upper wick, long lower wick, close near the top) is a hammer-like pattern, often read as short-term seller exhaustion or dip-buying interest, though on a stock this young it should be weighed against the still-intact longer downtrend rather than treated as a confirmed reversal.

Support levels

• $110.85 — today's intraday low, the most immediate downside marker.
• $115.26 — the prior close and the stock's most recent closing low (July 22), now acting as a level to hold if the bounce is to continue.

Resistance levels

• $118.55 — today's intraday high.
• $119.85 / $120.18 — the July 20 closing low and the 5-day SMA, clustered just above today's close.
• $121.45 — the 5-day EMA.
• $123.54 / $123.99 — the July 21 and July 17 closes.
• $128.78 — the 10-day SMA.
• $142.95 — the 20-day SMA, well above current trade and reflecting the steeper part of the prior decline.

Momentum interpretation

RSI-14 reads 35.94, in bearish territory but not yet at the conventional oversold threshold of 30. Given the short data history, this reading should be treated as directional context rather than a precise signal.

Bull scenario: a close back above the $119.85-$121.45 zone (July 20 close and 5-day EMA) would suggest the hammer-style reversal is gaining follow-through, with the 10-day SMA at $128.78 as the next test.

Bear scenario: a break back below today's low of $110.85 would signal the downtrend reasserting itself, with no clearly defined data-based support until price approaches the psychological low $100 handle, an area not yet tested in this stock's trading history.

Neutral scenario: continued consolidation between the $110.85 low and the $118.55-$120.18 area would suggest the market is digesting the post-IPO decline before committing to a direction, particularly with lock-up-driven supply concerns still ahead in August.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX posted its first meaningful up day in over a week, reversing an early slide to close near the session high, but did so on below-average volume and while still sitting inside a well-established downtrend defined by stacked short-term moving averages. The bounce is notable for its candle shape but has not yet cleared the cluster of resistance between $119.85 and $121.45. The next session's key levels to watch are $110.85 on the downside and the $119.85-$121.45 zone on the upside; a decisive move through either would clarify whether today's reversal has follow-through or whether the broader downtrend since the June 16 peak remains intact.

Sources

1. SpaceX Targets July 24 For Starship's Thirteenth Test Flight Due To Weather Conditions — Benzinga
2. Musk Touted Data Centers in Space to SpaceX IPO Investors. Peter Zeihan Calls the Idea 'So Many Levels of Dumb' — Benzinga
3. Trump Jr.'s Investment Firm Posts 200% Returns, Helped by Polymarket's Meteoric Rise — Benzinga
4. Why Is Robinhood Stock Falling on Thursday? — Benzinga
5. A Lot More SpaceX Shares Are About to Come Onto the Market — The Motley Fool
6. Cathie Wood Swaps Robinhood for SpaceX, Archer—Did ARK Pivot Back to Moonshot Innovation? — Benzinga
7. SpaceX Stock's Hidden Risk Isn't Rockets — It's AI Spending — Benzinga
8. Alphabet Just Posted a Monster Quarter. The Stock Dropped Anyway. Time to Buy the Stock? — The Motley Fool
9. The Biggest Winner Inside Tesla's Earnings Wasn't Tesla—It Was SpaceX — Benzinga
10. Tesla Posts Huge Q2 EPS Miss: Top Analyst Says Company Is 'Feeding the Top Line' With Discounts — Benzinga
11. Elon Musk Says Tesla's Spending Spree Is the 'Fastest Industrial Scale-Up Since World War II' as 2026 Shapes Up To Be a 'Massive CapEx Year' — Benzinga
12. QUICK SPARK: Legendary Trader Tom Sosnoff Nails the SpaceX Stock Sell Off — Benzinga
13. Here's the Biggest Risk Facing SpaceX (Hint: It's Not Another Failed Starship Launch) — The Motley Fool
14. Elon Musk Just Gave SpaceX A Bigger Role Inside Tesla — Benzinga
15. 'SpaceXAI Scouting Multiple Texas Sites For Large-Scale Data Center Expansion' - The Information — Benzinga
16. Sundar Pichai Just Said Something About Google's Gemini 4—and Sam Altman, Elon Musk Should Care — Benzinga
17. Alphabet's $112 Billion Quarterly Profit Looked Like an AI and Search Victory, but SpaceX and Anthropic Actually Powered the Historic Windfall — Benzinga
18. SpaceX Outlook: Where the Stock Price for This $1.5 Trillion Giant Could Land in 2027 — The Motley Fool
19. SpaceX, Google to Announce Partnership to Build Orbital Data Centers? Crypto Punters Weigh 2026 Odds — Benzinga
20. Mega IPOs Like SpaceX Reshape Major Index Funds and ETFs — The Motley Fool
21. Tesla and SpaceX Merger? Prediction Market Says it Could Happen Before This Date — Benzinga
22. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Market data and technical readings are based on available data as of the report date and may be incomplete, delayed, or subject to revision. SPCX has a limited trading history, and standard technical indicators may not yet be statistically reliable. Verify all figures independently before making any financial decision.