Slips as Investors Weigh Nationalization Odds, Lockup Risk

SPCX closed at $115.0699 on July 24, 2026, down 2.68% from the prior close of $118.24 and a new closing low since the June 12 IPO.

Executive Summary

SPCX extended its post-IPO slide on Friday, closing at $115.0699, its lowest close since the stock began trading on June 12. The session's biggest headline was HSBC initiating coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 price target, a level the stock closed almost exactly at. Reporting also pointed to the approaching August 6 lockup expiration, when early investors become eligible to sell up to 20% of their holdings, as a factor weighing on sentiment ahead of that date. Coverage additionally noted Elon Musk's net worth falling roughly $80 billion over the week, tied in part to declines in SpaceX and Tesla, and continued attention on SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 launch attempt.

Other coverage highlighted both sides of investor positioning: Alphabet's $94.1 billion equity stake alongside its $920 million-a-month AI computing spend with SpaceX, nine Vanguard ETFs having bought a combined $6.1 billion of the stock since the IPO, and retail investors adding $320 million in July alone. At the same time, multiple Motley Fool pieces flagged valuation concerns, citing a price-to-sales ratio cited in the reporting as being in the 78x-85x range against a company that remains unprofitable.

News

1. Investor Says His SpaceX Bet Has Cost him $200K So Far. 'We'll Learn How to Trade This Stock Eventually'

An investor says a massive bet on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) has already cost him nearly $200,000, but he’s not ready to walk away yet.

The investor from the popular WallStreetBets subreddit recently shared screenshots (Benzinga, Jul 24, 3:33 PM ET)

2. QUICK SPARK: Elon Musk Loses $80 Billion In A Single Week

Elon Musk lost $80 billion this week, bringing his net worth down to $712.5 billion. Tesla and SpaceX's decline contributed to the drop. (Benzinga, Jul 24, 2:53 PM ET)

3. Will Trump Nationalize SpaceX? Here's What Betting Markets Are Predicting Post-IPO.

The Trump Administration has shown willingness to take ownership stakes in critical U.S. companies. Senator Bernie Sanders has proposed an American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act to give the public direct ownership in major AI companies including xAI (SpaceX's AI division). Betting markets initially showed ~11% odds of SpaceX nationalization by January 2027, but these odds have fallen to ~4% as of the article's publication date. (The Motley Fool, Jul 24, 1:05 PM ET)

4. SpaceX’s $94 Billion Investor Is Also a $920 Million-a-Month Customer

Alphabet owns $94.1B of SpaceX stock and pays $920M/month for AI computing capacity, with a possible orbital data center partnership. (Benzinga, Jul 24, 12:16 PM ET)

5. Elon Musk's Starship Tries Again Today After Engine Abort, Weather Scrub: What Prediction Markets Say About Flight 13

As SpaceX targets a Friday launch for Starship Flight 13, Polymarket bettors weigh in while SPCX stock slides ahead of a massive 900M share lock-up expiry. (Benzinga, Jul 24, 10:34 AM ET)

6. SpaceX Stock Sits Below IPO Price: What's Happening Today?

Space Exploration Technologies shares are slipping Friday. HSBC initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a price target below the IPO price. (Benzinga, Jul 24, 10:11 AM ET)

7. Charter Warns Broadband Competition Remains Fierce After Losing 172,000 Internet Customers

CHTR stock recovers early losses despite Q2 broadband churn. Charter beats Q2 EPS with $10.66 per share. Read full earnings details here. (Benzinga, Jul 24, 9:51 AM ET)

8. This Shattuck Labs Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 3 Initiations For Friday

Wall Street analysts changed outlook on top names. For full changes, upgrades, downgrades and initiations, see analyst ratings page. (Benzinga, Jul 24, 9:29 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$116.02
High	$117.00
Low	$111.40
Close	$115.0699
Change vs prior close	-2.68% (-$3.17)
Volume	49,340,844
Intraday range	$5.60
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	-14.76%

SPCX opened at $116.02, pushed as high as $117.00 early in the session, then sold off to an intraday low of $111.40 before recovering to close at $115.0699. Volume came in at 49,340,844 shares, below both the stock's average volume to date (78,136,566) and the prior session's volume (75,336,940). The close landed 14.76% below the $135.00 IPO offer price and well below the $160.95 first-day close.

SPCX printed a new closing low for the second straight session on below-average volume.

Technicals

SPCX has been trading for a little over six weeks. With only 29 daily closes on record, the 14-day RSI and short-term moving averages shown below are directionally useful but not yet the seasoned readings a more mature stock would offer, and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are not yet computable (marked unavailable). No lower-priced close exists anywhere in the stock's trading history prior to today, so any support levels below today's low are untested.

Trend

Every available short-term moving average sits above today's close: SMA-5 at $118.39, EMA-5 at $119.31, SMA-10 at $125.75, and SMA-20 at $141.05. That stacked-above-price alignment is consistent with a stock in a sustained short-term downtrend since its late-June/early-July peak in the closing-price history.

Candle read

The session produced a small red body of -$0.95 against a total range of $5.60, with a short upper wick of $0.98 and a much longer lower wick of $3.67. The close-location value of 0.66 shows price finished 66% of the way up from the low toward the high. In other words, sellers pushed the stock to a new low intraday, but buyers stepped in well before the close, closing the session nearer its high than its low despite the red body.

Support levels

• $111.40 — today's intraday low, and the lowest print in the stock's trading history to date.
• $110.00 — nearest round number below today's low.

Resistance levels

• $118.24 — Thursday's close (prior close).
• $118.39 / $119.31 — SMA-5 and EMA-5, both just above the prior close.
• $119.85 — the July 20 close.
• $120.00 — nearest round number above the recent trading cluster.
• $123.54 — the July 21 close.

Momentum interpretation

Bull scenario: SPCX reclaims the $118.24-$119.31 zone (prior close, SMA-5, EMA-5) and holds it, opening a path back toward the $119.85-$123.54 closes from July 20-21.

Bear scenario: a break below today's $111.40 low and the $110.00 round number would put the stock into territory with no prior closing price on record to reference.

Neutral scenario: SPCX consolidates between the $111.40 low and the $118.24-$119.31 resistance band. RSI-14 at 34.61 is below the neutral 50 midpoint but has not yet crossed into the sub-30 oversold zone.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX made a fresh closing low for a second consecutive session but did so on below-average volume and with a candle that closed well off its intraday low, some evidence of buyers defending the $111-112 area intraday even as the broader short-term trend remains down. RSI-14 at 34.61 is approaching but has not reached oversold territory. For the next session, the key levels to watch are $111.40 support (with $110.00 below it) against $118.24-$119.31 resistance overhead. Coverage also flagged the August 6 lockup expiration as a scheduled event that could add volatility ahead of that date.

Sources

1. Investor Says His SpaceX Bet Has Cost him $200K So Far. 'We'll Learn How to Trade This Stock Eventually' — Benzinga
2. QUICK SPARK: Elon Musk Loses $80 Billion In A Single Week — Benzinga
3. Will Trump Nationalize SpaceX? Here's What Betting Markets Are Predicting Post-IPO. — The Motley Fool
4. SpaceX's $94 Billion Investor Is Also a $920 Million-a-Month Customer — Benzinga
5. Elon Musk's Starship Tries Again Today After Engine Abort, Weather Scrub: What Prediction Markets Say About Flight 13 — Benzinga
6. SpaceX Stock Sits Below IPO Price: What's Happening Today? — Benzinga
7. Charter Warns Broadband Competition Remains Fierce After Losing 172,000 Internet Customers — Benzinga
8. This Shattuck Labs Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 3 Initiations For Friday — Benzinga
9. Prediction: Aug. 6 Will Be a Decisive Day for SpaceX — The Motley Fool
10. Meet the 9 Vanguard ETFs That Are Buying SpaceX Stock in Droves. Here's My Top Pick of the Bunch. — The Motley Fool
11. Ark Invest's Cathie Wood Just Sold AMD Stock and Bought SpaceX. Why I'd Be Doing the Opposite. — The Motley Fool
12. HSBC Initiates Coverage On SpaceX with Hold Rating, Announces Price Target of $115 — Benzinga
13. Will SpaceX Land on the Moon Before 2030? Here's What Betting Markets Are Predicting Post-IPO. — The Motley Fool
14. Meet the Trillion-Dollar Company Retail Investors Have Spent More Money Buying Than Any Other Stock in July — The Motley Fool
15. Elon Musk's Pitch for AI Firms To Peer Review Each Other's Models Surfaces Just as OpenAI's Own Agent Went Rogue: 'The Most Immediate Thing...' — Benzinga
16. SpaceX Stock Keeps Dropping. Here's Why I'm Still Waiting on the Sidelines — The Motley Fool
17. Cathie Wood Just Bought More SpaceX Stock. Here's Why I Wouldn't Copy Her — The Motley Fool
18. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. SPCX is a recently listed, thinly-traded stock with limited price history; technical readings referenced here are correspondingly limited in reliability. Verify all data independently before making any investment decision.