Slides Below IPO Price on Lockup, Starship Fears

SPCX closed at $131.02 on July 16, 2026, down 3.14% from the prior close of $135.27 and now trading below its $135 IPO offer price.

Executive Summary

SPCX extended its post-IPO slide on July 16, closing at $131.02 and falling below its $135 IPO offer price for the first time since the June 12 debut. The session opened at $135.01, pushed as high as $137.76, then reversed to close near the day's low of $130.74, a pattern consistent with the broader tech sell-off reported across the Nasdaq that day. News flow centered on SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 launch attempt, which was aborted before liftoff after Elon Musk said the engines "didn't start," alongside commentary from Piper Sandler (Neutral rating, $156 price target) and coverage noting Ark Invest had added to its SpaceX position the prior week.

Volume came in at 50,195,034 shares, below the average-to-date of 102,692,044, even as the stock recorded one of its larger single-day percentage declines since listing. With SPCX only weeks into public trading, the day's action should be read in the context of a still-forming post-IPO price structure rather than an established trend.

News

1. SpaceX Stock to Close Higher by July End? Probability on Crypto Prediction Market Falls From 61% to 32%

Cryptocurrency bettors are increasingly expecting Space Exploration Technologies Corp. to close lower by the end of July, as the stock continues to trade below its IPO price amid renewed selling pressure. (Benzinga, Jul 16, 11:44 PM ET)

2. Elon Musk Says Engines 'Didn't Start' — SpaceX Stock Trending After Hours As Starship Test Aborts

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. shares fell 3.08% in after-hours trading after Starship launch was aborted before liftoff. (Benzinga, Jul 16, 11:13 PM ET)

3. SpaceX Is 'Coming Back Down to Earth,' Peter Schiff Warns Ahead of Insider Lockup Expiry: 'Houston, We Have a Problem'

SpaceX remained below its IPO price as economist Peter Schiff warned that upcoming lockup expirations could weigh on the stock. (Benzinga, Jul 16, 11:04 PM ET)

4. Netflix, SpaceX, Alphabet, Alcoa and Intuitive Surgical: Why These 5 Stocks Are on Investors' Radars Today

NFLX, SPCX, GOOG, AA, ISRG were among the trending stocks on Thursday, July 16, 2026. (Benzinga, Jul 16, 9:22 PM ET)

5. SpaceX Just Fell Below Its IPO Price. Here's What Happens Next, According to History.

SpaceX has fallen below its $135 IPO price after an initial 20% surge. Historical analysis of major IPOs shows eight of ten experienced declines in the first three months, with an average drop of 13%. The article suggests most investors should wait for future buying opportunities rather than investing at current levels, citing the company's heavy investment needs and technology risks. (The Motley Fool, Jul 16, 7:10 PM ET)

6. Stock Market Today, July 16: Micron Plunges as Tech Stocks Extend Sell-Off

Tech stocks extended their sell-off on July 16, 2026, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1.47% amid growing AI spending concerns and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Micron Technology plunged nearly 6%, while semiconductor leaders like Nvidia and Broadcom declined. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell despite record earnings. Abbott Laboratories surged over 10% on strong earnings. A Bank of America survey revealed 45% of fund managers view an AI bubble as the largest market risk. (The Motley Fool, Jul 16, 5:03 PM ET)

7. SpaceXAI Launches Grok 4.5, SpaceXAI's Smartest Model Built To Excel At Coding, Agentic Tasks, And Knowledge Work; Says It's Our Strongest Model Ever And Was Trained Alongside Cursor

(Benzinga, Jul 16, 5:02 PM ET)

8. Amazon Web Services Announces Availability Of xAI’s Grok 4.3 On Amazon Bedrock

(Benzinga, Jul 16, 3:34 PM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$135.01
High	$137.76
Low	$130.74
Close	$131.02
Change vs prior close	-3.14%
Volume	50,195,034
Intraday range	$7.02 ($130.74–$137.76)
Close vs IPO offer ($135.00)	-2.94%

SPCX opened at $135.01, essentially flat to its $135 IPO offer price, then rallied to an intraday high of $137.76 before reversing sharply. The stock spent the back half of the session giving up those gains and settled at $131.02, just $0.28 above the day's low of $130.74. The prior session closed at $135.27 on volume of 58,134,796 shares; July 16 volume of 50,195,034 was lower both than the prior day and than the average-to-date of 102,692,044, indicating the decline occurred on lighter participation rather than a volume surge.

The close of $131.02 sits below both the prior close and the $135 IPO offer price, marking the first close under the offer price since the stock began trading.

Close undercut the IPO offer price for the first time, with the session's late reversal erasing an early move above $137.

Technicals

SPCX has been publicly traded for roughly five weeks as of this report. With only 23 trading days of history, the 14-day RSI and any moving average reading are numerically computable but not yet meaningful in the way they would be for an established stock — there isn't enough price history to establish reliable support/resistance memory, mean-reversion tendencies, or trend confirmation. The readings below are reported for reference, with that caveat attached, and the technical read leans more heavily on price structure, candle shape, and volume.

Trend

The daily close history shows SPCX peaked at $201.80 on June 16, four trading days after the IPO, and has trended lower with intermittent bounces since — including a rally to $170.86 on June 30 that also failed to hold. The move from $139.14 on July 13 to $131.02 on July 16 continues that lower trajectory. The short-window averages available reflect this: SMA-5 at $137.36 and EMA-5 at $137.43 both sit above the current close, while SMA-10 ($145.92) and SMA-20 ($155.00) are progressively higher, consistent with a downtrend across the stock's short life. SMA-50 and SMA-200 are not yet available given the limited trading history.

Candle read

The July 16 candle has a body of -3.99 (open $135.01 to close $131.02), an upper wick of 2.75, and a lower wick of just 0.28, against a full range of 7.02. The closeLocation of 0.04 means the close landed just 4% above the low of the day's range — effectively a close at the lows. The long upper wick relative to the small lower wick shows the session's early advance toward $137.76 was rejected and sellers controlled trading into the close, a bearish signal for the session.

Support levels

• $130.74 — the intraday low of the session, now the most recent tested floor.
• $130.00 — nearest round-number level just below the day's low.
• $135.00 — the IPO offer price, now broken to the downside; a reclaim above this level would flip it back to support.

Resistance levels

• $131.02–$135.27 — the zone bounded by today's close and the prior close.
• $135.00 — IPO offer price, now acting as overhead resistance after being breached.
• $137.36–$137.76 — SMA-5/EMA-5 cluster ($137.36 / $137.43) just below today's intraday high of $137.76.
• $145.92 — SMA-10.
• $155.00 — SMA-20.

Momentum interpretation

RSI-14 at 38.65 sits below the neutral 50 midpoint, reflecting the recent run of lower closes, though with only 23 sessions of data this reading carries limited historical context.

• Bull scenario: a reclaim and close back above the $135.00 IPO offer price, followed by a move through the $137.36–$137.76 SMA-5/high cluster, would be the first sign of stabilization.
• Bear scenario: a break below the $130.74 intraday low and the $130.00 round-number level would open the stock to further downside with no close-history support level yet established beneath it.
• Neutral scenario: continued trading inside the $130.74–$137.76 range from the last session, without a decisive close beyond either boundary, would suggest consolidation rather than a resolved trend.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX broke below its $135 IPO offer price for the first time on July 16, closing at $131.02 after an early push to $137.76 was fully reversed, with the close landing just above the day's low. The decline came on volume below the stock's average-to-date, and short-term averages (SMA-5 $137.36, SMA-10 $145.92, SMA-20 $155.00) are all above the current price, consistent with the downtrend visible in the close history since the June 16 peak of $201.80. The next session's key levels to watch are the $130.74 intraday low and $130.00 round number on the downside, and the $135.00 IPO offer price / $137.36–$137.76 cluster on the upside.

Sources

1. SpaceX Stock to Close Higher by July End? Probability on Crypto Prediction Market Falls From 61% to 32% — Benzinga
2. Elon Musk Says Engines 'Didn't Start' — SpaceX Stock Trending After Hours As Starship Test Aborts — Benzinga
3. SpaceX Is 'Coming Back Down to Earth,' Peter Schiff Warns Ahead of Insider Lockup Expiry: 'Houston, We Have a Problem' — Benzinga
4. Netflix, SpaceX, Alphabet, Alcoa and Intuitive Surgical: Why These 5 Stocks Are on Investors' Radars Today — Benzinga
5. SpaceX Just Fell Below Its IPO Price. Here's What Happens Next, According to History. — The Motley Fool
6. Stock Market Today, July 16: Micron Plunges as Tech Stocks Extend Sell-Off — The Motley Fool
7. SpaceXAI Launches Grok 4.5, SpaceXAI's Smartest Model Built To Excel At Coding, Agentic Tasks, And Knowledge Work — Benzinga
8. Amazon Web Services Announces Availability Of xAI's Grok 4.3 On Amazon Bedrock — Benzinga
9. Korea Drives Semi Stocks Lower Despite Solid Taiwan Semi Earnings; Apple Boosts China AI Models — Benzinga
10. Why Is Rocket Lab Stock Falling on Thursday? — Benzinga
11. 8 Communication Services Stocks With Whale Alerts In Today's Session — Benzinga
12. Dow Jones Hangs On While Memory Chips Take Another Beating — The Motley Fool
13. Elon Musk Just Agreed With Google — And Microsoft's CEO Did Too — Benzinga
14. SpaceX Launches Starship Tonight With Satellites Too Big for Other Rockets: Can Flight 13 Reignite SPCX? — Benzinga
15. Buy ASTS, Watch SpaceX and Rocket Lab From the Launch Pad: Piper Sandler's Space Playbook — Benzinga
16. Lucid's 50% Selloff Ends First US 2x Single-Stock ETF, Exposing the Limits of Leverage — Benzinga
17. SpaceX's Starship Test Is Really About The Launch After The Launch — Benzinga
18. This Cintas Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Thursday — Benzinga
19. SpaceX Just Landed in a Very Strange Place — Inside Value ETFs — Benzinga
20. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Bought Over $51 Million of SpaceX Stock Last Week — The Motley Fool
21. What a $1,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Be Worth in 2030 — The Motley Fool
22. This Rambus Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 5 Initiations For Thursday — Benzinga
23. Will SpaceX Be a $9 Trillion Stock by 2027? — The Motley Fool
24. Big Tech's $182 Billion AI Debt Spree: How META, NVDA and AMZN Are Reshaping Credit Markets — Benzinga
25. Piper Sandler Initiates Coverage On SpaceX with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $156 — Benzinga
26. SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab: Which Is the Better Space Stock to Buy Right Now? — The Motley Fool
27. Elon Musk Reacts to Jamie Dimon's 'Einstein' Praise With Two-Word Reply as Viral Post Hails His SpaceX and Tesla Legacy — Benzinga
28. Tesla Q2 Earnings: Elon Musk's Pay Package, Cybercab and Optimus Lead Top Investor Questions — Benzinga
29. SpaceX Stock Has Stumbled Since Its IPO. History Says It Could Be Up by This Much in 1 Year. — The Motley Fool
30. As SpaceX Declines, Gary Black Says He Won't Get Excited Until SPCX Stock Falls Below $100—Ross Gerber Asks 'Can It Hold?' — Benzinga
31. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Data and figures are sourced from Alpaca Markets (SIP) and the cited news outlets as of the timestamps noted. Readers should verify all figures independently and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.