SpaceX Earnings Beat, Lockup Expiration Fail to Trigger Selloff

SPCX closed at $114.91 on August 6, 2026, up 6.13% from the prior session's close of $108.27.

Executive Summary

SpaceX shares rallied sharply on Thursday as the stock's first major post-IPO lockup period expired without the flood of selling many investors had braced for. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas called the company a "potential generational compounder" even as roughly $101 billion in newly unlocked stock became eligible for sale, and Benzinga reported that options traders were piling into $111 calls ahead of the 911-million-share unlock. The move also came in the wake of SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, which drew a mixed reaction across the coverage feeding this report: some outlets framed the results as a valuation "warning shot" for other pre-IPO names preparing to list, while The Motley Fool cited concerns over AI capital spending, dilution from the all-stock Cursor AI acquisition, and a price-to-sales multiple well above industry norms as reasons to stay on the sidelines.

Sentiment on the stock remained split. JPMorgan reiterated a bullish stance with a call for substantial upside tied to AI and compute monetization, and Cathie Wood's Ark Invest reportedly added to its SpaceX position during the recent pullback. On the other side, a former hedge fund manager argued the stock is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion, and Direxion launched a new leveraged bear ETF tied to SpaceX timed to the lockup expiration. Separately, SpaceX and Tesla confirmed a shared chip-manufacturing site in Texas aimed at meeting AI compute demand, a storyline running in parallel to the stock-specific debate. None of this changes what the tape itself shows: SPCX gained ground on above-average volume and closed near the highs of its daily range.

News

1. SpaceX Is a ‘Potential Generational Compounder,’ Morgan Stanley Says as $101 Billion Unlock Fails to Trigger Fresh Selloff

Adam Jonas calls SpaceX a potential generational compounder as a $101 billion lockup expires without triggering the fresh selloff bears feared. (Benzinga, Aug 6, 3:35 PM ET)

2. Trump Ally in Congress Discloses Investment in Private Defense Firm — And Yes, It Has Government Contracts

A congresswoman is back investing in private companies, with a new stake in a drone company that has government contracts. (Benzinga, Aug 6, 2:39 PM ET)

3. SpaceX’s First Earnings Report Creates a New Valuation Test for Venture’s Biggest Winners

SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) earnings beat expectations, but the stock decline sent a warning to venture investors. (Benzinga, Aug 6, 2:17 PM ET)

4. What's Going On With SpaceX Stock Today?

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are trending Thursday, driven by the expiration of the company's lockup period. (Benzinga, Aug 6, 1:54 PM ET)

5. SpaceX Stock: 3 Reasons I Am Not Buying the Dip

SpaceX stock has declined 20% from its IPO price despite strong Q2 revenue growth of 92% to $7.8 billion. The analyst identifies three concerns: massive AI spending ($15.8B capex in Q2) with uncertain near-term returns, shareholder dilution from the $60B all-stock acquisition of Cursor AI startup, and an unreasonable valuation with a P/S ratio of 73.4 compared to industry norms below 2. The author suggests waiting for further price declines before investing. (The Motley Fool, Aug 6, 12:30 PM ET)

6. QUICK SPARK: Direxion Launches SpaceX 2X Bear ETF as Lock-Up Ends

The Daily SpaceX Bear 2X ETF (LOFD) offers inverse leveraged exposure to SpaceX as the stock faces its first earnings report and IPO lock-up expiration. (Benzinga, Aug 6, 12:25 PM ET)

7. SpaceX, Tesla Confirm Terafab Site as Chip Demand Outruns Global Supply

SpaceX and Tesla confirm Grimes County, TX as the home for Terafab giant chip manufacturing project. (Benzinga, Aug 6, 12:15 PM ET)

8. Elon Musk Says "My very approximate guess is that Terafab AI compute output would be ~25% for Tesla Optimus and ~75% for AI spacecraft"

(Benzinga, Aug 6, 11:45 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$107.09
High	$115.75
Low	$105.11
Close	$114.91
Change vs prior close	+$6.64 (+6.13%)
Volume	195,846,146
Intraday range	$10.64
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	-$20.09 (-14.9%)

SPCX opened at $107.09, dipped to a session low of $105.11 early on, then pushed steadily higher through the day to a high of $115.75 before settling at $114.91. The prior session closed at $108.27 on volume of 208,552,983 shares; Thursday's volume of 195,846,146 shares came in below that prior-day level but still well above the average volume to date of 83,149,301 shares, with the volume-vs-average indicator on file reading 1.64x. The stock remains below both its June 12 IPO-day close of $160.95 and its $135.00 IPO offer price, closing Thursday 14.9% under the offer price.

Bottom line: SPCX posted a strong single-day recovery on elevated volume, but the close still sits well below both IPO reference points.

Technicals

SPCX has been public since June 12, 2026, roughly eight weeks of trading history as of this report. Standard 14-day RSI and short moving averages (5, 10, 20-day) can be calculated, but the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are not yet meaningful — the indicator registry marks both as unavailable given the limited price history. Interpret all technical structure below in that context: it describes price behavior, not an established trend confirmed by long-horizon averages.

Trend

Short-term averages show the stock's close ($114.91) sitting just above its 5-day SMA ($114.28), 5-day EMA ($114.45), and 10-day SMA ($114.11) — all three cluster tightly around the current price, suggesting the very short-term trend has flattened after weeks of decline. The 20-day SMA, at $121.45, sits meaningfully above the current close, indicating the stock remains below its own trailing-month average and that the broader multi-week trend since the June IPO peak has been down.

Candle read

Thursday's session produced a bullish candle: an open-to-close body of $7.83 against a total range of $10.64, with a small upper wick of $0.84 and a larger lower wick of $1.97. The close-location value of 0.92 means the close landed at 92% of the day's range — near the very top. That combination (body dominating the range, small upper wick, close near the high) reflects sellers testing the lows early in the session before buyers took control and pushed price into the close.

Support levels

• $114.11–$114.28 — the SMA-5/SMA-10 cluster, immediately below Thursday's close
• $108.27 — Wednesday's close, the level the stock gapped up from
• $105.11 — Thursday's intraday low
• $105.00 — nearest round-number level below the session low

Resistance levels

• $115.75 — Thursday's intraday high
• $120.00 — nearest round-number level above current price
• $121.45 — the 20-day SMA
• $125.33 — the August 4 close, the most recent higher close on file

Momentum interpretation

RSI-14 reads 42.49, below the 50 midpoint but not in oversold territory, consistent with a stock still working off a multi-week decline from its June highs rather than one that's overheated.

Bull scenario: a close that holds above Thursday's high of $115.75 would put the $120.00 round number and the $121.45 20-day SMA in play; clearing that zone opens a path toward the $125.33 level last seen August 4.

Bear scenario: a break below the $114.11–$114.28 short-average cluster would put Wednesday's $108.27 close back in focus, with the $105.11 session low and the $105.00 round number as the next levels below that.

Neutral scenario: continued consolidation between the $108.27 prior close and the $115.75 session high, with the market waiting on further reaction to the lockup expiration and the recent earnings report before committing to a direction.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX bounced 6.13% on Thursday, closing near the top of its daily range on volume above its trailing average — a session-level signal that buyers stepped in after Wednesday's post-earnings, pre-lockup weakness. That said, the stock remains below its 20-day SMA and 14.9% under its $135.00 IPO offer price, so the medium-term picture is still one of a stock recovering within a longer pullback rather than one that has confirmed a new uptrend. For the next session, the key levels to watch are support at $108.27 (Wednesday's close) and $105.11 (Thursday's low), against resistance at $115.75 (Thursday's high) and the $121.45 20-day SMA.

Sources

1. SpaceX Is a 'Potential Generational Compounder,' Morgan Stanley Says as $101 Billion Unlock Fails to Trigger Fresh Selloff — Benzinga
2. Trump Ally in Congress Discloses Investment in Private Defense Firm — And Yes, It Has Government Contracts — Benzinga
3. SpaceX's First Earnings Report Creates a New Valuation Test for Venture's Biggest Winners — Benzinga
4. What's Going On With SpaceX Stock Today? — Benzinga
5. SpaceX Stock: 3 Reasons I Am Not Buying the Dip — The Motley Fool
6. QUICK SPARK: Direxion Launches SpaceX 2X Bear ETF as Lock-Up Ends — Benzinga
7. SpaceX, Tesla Confirm Terafab Site as Chip Demand Outruns Global Supply — Benzinga
8. Elon Musk Says "My very approximate guess is that Terafab AI compute output would be ~25% for Tesla Optimus and ~75% for AI spacecraft" — Benzinga
9. Why Tesla Stock Plunged 26% in July — The Motley Fool
10. SpaceX Stock Overvalued By $1 Trillion: Former Hedge Funder Says 'Most Overvalued Large Cap Stock of All Time' — Benzinga
11. Cathie Wood Goes Bargain Hunting: 3 Stocks She Just Bought — The Motley Fool
12. Tesla Posts On X "Terafab will be built in Grimes County, Texas..." — Benzinga
13. Peter Diamandis Sees $10 Trillion Valuation for SPCX, Says Elon Musk Is Building 'Civilizational' Infrastructure (CORRECTED) — Benzinga
14. AI Hyperscaler Spending Is Entering Uncharted Territory: 3x the Telecom Boom — Benzinga
15. SpaceX's Real Financial Engine Isn't Rockets or AI — Benzinga
16. Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Gain, Nasdaq 100 Tumbles as Hormuz Deal Talks Progress—SpaceX, SanDisk, Applovin in Focus (UPDATED) — Benzinga
17. Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation Fund: Is It Still a Buy After Years of Underperformance? — The Motley Fool
18. EXCLUSIVE: SpaceX's Earnings Shock Is the Warning Shot for OpenAI and Anthropic — Benzinga
19. SpaceX Bulls Pile Into $111 Calls Ahead of 911 Million-Share Unlock: Here's What to Know — Benzinga
20. SpaceX Stock Primed for Massive 122% Upside, JPMorgan Says — Benzinga
21. Gene Munster Predicts SpaceX Could Generate $135 Billion In Annual Revenue — Well Above Wall Street's Forecast: 'The Dust Is Settling...' — Benzinga
22. Elon Musk Has a Message for Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin After It Solved the New Glenn Mystery — 'Hope You...' — Benzinga
23. Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today? — Benzinga
24. Jim Cramer Compares SpaceX Stock to 100-Year Railroad Bonds: Asks Investors to Think of Their Children and Grandchildren — Benzinga
25. SpaceX Has Reached the Moon, Just Not How Elon Musk Might Have Planned It — Benzinga
26. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Market data and figures are sourced as cited above and may be delayed or subject to revision. Readers should verify all data independently and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. SPCX has a limited public trading history, and technical indicators dependent on longer historical windows are not yet available or reliable.