Slides on China Reusable Rocket Milestone, Nasdaq-100 Valuation Worries

SPCX closed at $145.40, down 4.44% from the prior close of $152.16, on volume well below its running average.

Executive Summary

SPCX gave back Thursday's bounce and then some, falling 4.44% to close at $145.40 after opening at $150.13. The session's news flow centered on the stock's addition to the Nasdaq-100, which Motley Fool coverage tied to a roughly 7% first-day-in-index decline, alongside a separate Fool piece flagging weakness in SpaceX's 2056 corporate notes as a signal of bond-market concern over the company's debt load following its $85.7 billion IPO and subsequent $25 billion debt issuance. Coverage was otherwise mixed: Raymond James initiated with an $800 price target citing Starship, AI compute, and Starlink expansion, while other headlines noted a proposed wave of "Ex-Elon" ETFs designed to exclude Musk-linked names, a sitting congressman's SpaceX position reportedly down 23%, and continued Musk commentary on Starlink throughput and AI.

Today's volume of 38,929,720 shares was about 25% of the average volume accumulated since listing and also lower than the prior session's 46,545,829 shares, so the decline came on lighter participation than the stock has typically seen since its June 12 debut.

News

1. UPDATE: Elon Musk Tells Tesla Staff to Move to Using Grok Was Reported On July 9, 2026

(Benzinga, Jul 10, 4:08 PM ET)

2. 'Elon Musk Tells Tesla Staff to Move to Using Grok' - The Information Exclusive

(Benzinga, Jul 10, 4:06 PM ET)

3. SpaceX IPO Pays Off For The Musks: Elon First Trillionaire, Kimbal A Billionaire Once Again

Elon Musk isn't the only member of his family who saw a net worth boost from the SpaceX IPO. Younger brother Kimbal Musk is now a billionaire. (Benzinga, Jul 10, 3:28 PM ET)

4. New 'Ex-Elon' ETFs Would Strip Musk's Tesla And SpaceX From Major Indexes

New Ex-Elon ETFs exclude companies linked to Elon Musk, underscoring founder concentration as a growing ETF theme. (Benzinga, Jul 10, 1:13 PM ET)

5. Congressman Buys SpaceX Stock After IPO: Trade Could Be Down 23% Already

Four members of Congress own SpaceX stock. Here's why some of the purchases are drawing increased attention. (Benzinga, Jul 10, 12:40 PM ET)

6. China Lands Reusable Rocket Booster for the First Time, Closes Gap With SpaceX in Orbital Launch Race

China's successful recovery of the first stage of a Long March 10B rocket brings them closer to SpaceX's reusable rocket capabilities. (Benzinga, Jul 10, 9:46 AM ET)

7. Elon Musk Confirms Starlink Can Deliver Reliable 10 Gigabit-a-Second Upload and Download Speeds Anywhere On Earth

Elon Musk announced Starlink can now provide 10 Gbps global connectivity, a key step in satellite internet's push to high-speed data service. (Benzinga, Jul 10, 8:14 AM ET)

8. Elon Musk Admits He Was 'Clearly Wrong' About Anthropic— and Promises Not to Weaponize SpaceXAI's Compute Access Against the Claude Maker: 'Not My Style'

Elon Musk publicly reverses his view of Anthropic, acknowledging them as the leader in AI and pledging not to harm them as a competitor. (Benzinga, Jul 10, 7:25 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$150.13
High	$150.57
Low	$145.07
Close	$145.40
Change vs prior close	-4.44% (from $152.16)
Volume	38,929,720
Intraday range	$145.07 – $150.57 ($5.50)
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	+7.70%
Close vs IPO-day close ($160.95)	-9.66%

SPCX opened at $150.13, pushed marginally higher to $150.57 early, then sold off through the session to a low of $145.07 before closing near that low at $145.40. The move erased the prior session's gain and pulled the close back toward levels last seen around the July 7–8 close band. Volume at 38.9 million shares was roughly a quarter of the stock's average daily volume to date, and below the prior day's 46.5 million shares.

Today's session closed near the day's low on below-average volume, extending the pullback from July's early highs rather than reversing it.

Technicals

SPCX has traded for fewer than 30 sessions since its June 12 IPO, so multi-week trend measures like the 14-day RSI and the 20/50/200-day moving averages either aren't available yet or aren't yet statistically meaningful (the data confirms SMA-20, SMA-50, and SMA-200 are unavailable). The read below leans on price structure, candle shape, volume, and the shorter averages the history can actually support.

Trend

Since peaking at a $201.80 close on June 16, SPCX has trended lower with periodic bounces, including a rally to $170.86 on June 30 and a bounce to $152.16 on July 9. Today's close of $145.40 sits below both the 5-day SMA ($151.15) and the 10-day SMA ($156.36), consistent with the shorter-term trend remaining down.

Candle read

The session produced a bearish candle with a body of -4.72 points against a total range of 5.50 points, meaning the body accounted for most of the day's range. The upper wick was small (0.44), and the lower wick was also small (0.33). The close-location value of 0.06 means the close settled almost exactly at the low of the day's range, indicating selling pressure persisted into the close rather than being bought back.

Support levels

The intraday low of $145.07 is the nearest support, having held on this session's selloff. Below that, the IPO offer price of $135.00 is the next visible reference level, both as a round number and as the price at which the company priced its Nasdaq debut.

Resistance levels

The session open of $150.13 and the prior close of $152.16 mark the nearest resistance, roughly aligned with the 5-day SMA of $151.15. Above that, the 10-day SMA at $156.36 is the next reference level the stock would need to reclaim to challenge the recent range highs.

Momentum interpretation

Bull scenario: a move back above the 5-day SMA ($151.15) and the prior close ($152.16) would suggest today's decline was a single-session pullback rather than a resumption of the post-IPO downtrend, with the 10-day SMA ($156.36) as the next test.

Bear scenario: a break below today's low of $145.07 would put the IPO offer price of $135.00 in view as the next reference level, with RSI-14 at 44.28 still leaving room before an oversold reading (the indicator remains in a neutral range, not yet flagging oversold conditions).

Neutral scenario: continued consolidation between today's low of $145.07 and the prior close of $152.16 would keep the stock inside its recent multi-session range without resolving the shorter-term trend in either direction.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX resumed its post-IPO downtrend today, closing near the session low on below-average volume after Nasdaq-100 inclusion coverage and bond-market concerns dominated the news flow, while a bullish $800 price target from Raymond James did not prevent the decline. The close remains above the IPO offer price of $135.00 but well below the June 16 closing high of $201.80. For the next session, the key levels to watch are support at $145.07 and, if that fails, $135.00, against resistance at $150.13, $151.15 (5-day SMA), and $152.16.

Sources

1. UPDATE: Elon Musk Tells Tesla Staff to Move to Using Grok Was Reported On July 9, 2026 — Benzinga
2. 'Elon Musk Tells Tesla Staff to Move to Using Grok' - The Information Exclusive — Benzinga
3. SpaceX IPO Pays Off For The Musks: Elon First Trillionaire, Kimbal A Billionaire Once Again — Benzinga
4. New 'Ex-Elon' ETFs Would Strip Musk's Tesla And SpaceX From Major Indexes — Benzinga
5. Congressman Buys SpaceX Stock After IPO: Trade Could Be Down 23% Already — Benzinga
6. China Lands Reusable Rocket Booster for the First Time, Closes Gap With SpaceX in Orbital Launch Race — Benzinga
7. Elon Musk Confirms Starlink Can Deliver Reliable 10 Gigabit-a-Second Upload and Download Speeds Anywhere On Earth — Benzinga
8. Elon Musk Admits He Was 'Clearly Wrong' About Anthropic— and Promises Not to Weaponize SpaceXAI's Compute Access Against the Claude Maker: 'Not My Style' — Benzinga
9. Backpack Launches First 24/7 Market for Real U.S. Equities — GlobeNewswire Inc.
10. SpaceX Lands on the Nasdaq-100: What Comes Next for Investors — The Motley Fool
11. Could AI Pay Americans $1 Million Each? New Think Tank Forecast Sparks Jim Chanos' SpaceX Jab: 'Seems Reasonable' — Benzinga
12. Raymond James Sets Wall Street's Highest Price Target on SpaceX Stock at $800. Here's the Math Behind the 425% Upside Call. — The Motley Fool
13. The Bond Market Is Sending a Terrifying Message to SpaceX -- but Is Anyone Listening? — The Motley Fool
14. Anduril CEO Warns AI and Defense Valuations Are Becoming Dangerously Overvalued, Says Company Isn't Rushing to IPO — Benzinga
15. Elon Musk Says SpaceX Would Be Worth More Than Earth if It Achieves Its Goals Amid First AI Satellite Reveal — Benzinga
16. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Market data and news are sourced as cited above and may be incomplete or delayed. Verify all figures independently before making any investment decision.