Short Squeeze Emerges After Lockup Fears Ease

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) closed at $138.74, up 4.23% from the prior close of $133.11, after an intraday session that dipped to $130.17 before rallying into the close.

Executive Summary

SPCX put together a second straight up session, closing back above its $135 IPO offer price after briefly testing levels below it earlier Monday. The move follows a volatile stretch tied to last week's first insider lockup expiration on August 6, which released 911.5 million shares for potential sale; per Motley Fool coverage, the anticipated selling pressure did not materialize and the stock instead saw its highest volume since the June IPO. Commentary was split: ARK Invest characterized the recent selloff as short-term and pointed to what it sees as a large addressable market, while investor Chris Camillo publicly questioned the stock's valuation as pricing in highly speculative assumptions. Benzinga also reported retail investors turned net sellers for the first time recently, even as the stock continued to hold near its IPO price.

Today's session itself showed a round trip: shares opened at $134.95, sold off to $130.17, then reversed to close at $139.24, only $0.50 off the session high.

News

1. 'Trump Will Not Reach an Agreement With Us,' Iranian Conservative Claims: What Do Prediction Markets Say?

An adviser argues Tehran has little incentive to rush into a deal with Donald Trump and could instead wait out his presidency until 2029. (Benzinga, Aug 10, 3:28 PM ET)

2. Rocket Lab Reports Earnings Tonight: What Do Prediction Markets Say About Neutron Launches in 2026?

Rocket Lab reports Q2 earnings Monday after the close as prediction markets price just a 14% chance its Neutron rocket launches before 2027. (Benzinga, Aug 10, 2:49 PM ET)

3. SpaceX Stock Stalls Around IPO Price: What's Going On?

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are pulling back slightly Monday after rallying to close out last week. The stock is sitting just below its $135 IPO price after retail investors became net sellers for the first time and the mass insider selling many had feared failed to spark selling pressure. (Benzinga, Aug 10, 2:40 PM ET)

4. Retail Investors Bought the July Dip in These 5 Stocks: Schwab Data

Schwab’s July STAX data shows retail investors remained bullish but selective, buying dips while taking profits in several major tech stocks. (Benzinga, Aug 10, 2:38 PM ET)

5. SpaceX Earnings Highlights from Cathie Wood's ARK Invest

ARK Invest sees SpaceX stock selloff as short-term, as investors overlooked its $28.5 trillion total addressable market. (Benzinga, Aug 10, 1:16 PM ET)

6. S&P 500 Earnings Growth May Be Less Impressive Than It Looks; SpaceX Short Squeeze; Inflation Data Ahead

Earnings Narrative

Please click here for an enlarged chart of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX).

Note the following:

This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The (Benzinga, Aug 10, 1:07 PM ET)

7. SpaceX's First Lockup Expired Last Week. Why Didn't the Stock Crash?

SpaceX's first lockup expiration on Aug. 6 released 911.5 million insider shares for potential sale, but the stock did not crash as anticipated. Instead, trading volume surged to 255 million shares—the highest since the IPO in mid-June. Insiders may have held back due to recent price declines, while investors likely bought in anticipation of a market bottom. However, the stock remains highly volatile and unprofitable, presenting significant risks for investors. (The Motley Fool, Aug 10, 1:05 PM ET)

8. Rocket Lab Stock Up 41% From Its July Low: Can Q2 Clear a Sky-High Bar?

Rocket Lab's (RKLB) stock has soared 41.3% since July 29 ahead of its earnings report. Expectations are high after recent contracts and revenue beats. (Benzinga, Aug 10, 11:50 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$134.95
High	$139.24
Low	$130.17
Close	$138.74
Change vs prior close	+4.23% ($133.11 to $138.74)
Volume	146,830,030
Intraday range	$9.07 ($130.17 to $139.24)
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	+2.77%

Volume came in at 146.83 million shares, roughly 1.18 times the average volume to date of 99.64 million, though well below the prior session's 242.14 million shares — a print that Motley Fool tied to the August 6 lockup expiration. Measured against the June 12 IPO close of $160.95, today's close remains 13.8% lower, underscoring that SPCX has spent most of its short trading history retracing from its opening-week highs.

The session's defining feature was the reversal off the $130.17 low back to a close near the day's high, effectively erasing an early test of levels below the IPO offer price.

Technicals

SPCX has only about 38 trading sessions of history since its June 12 IPO, so RSI-14 and the 20/50/200-day moving averages are not yet statistically meaningful — there simply isn't enough price history for them to reflect a stable regime. The read below leans instead on price structure, candle shape, volume, and the shorter SMA/EMA readings, which carry less weight than they would for a seasoned stock.

Trend

Since peaking at $201.80 on June 16, SPCX spent late June through July in a steady decline, bottoming at $108.27 on August 5. The stock has since strung together two up sessions, closing at $133.11 on August 7 and $138.74 today. The 5-day SMA ($124.07) and 5-day EMA ($126.69) both sit well below the current close, and the 10-day SMA ($118.44) and 20-day SMA ($120.82) sit lower still — consistent with a stock that has moved up sharply and quickly from its recent low, with the short-term averages still catching up. Because these averages span a period that includes the steep July decline, they should be read as lagging the current move rather than confirming a new trend.

Candle read

Today's candle has a $3.79 body, a $0.50 upper wick, and a $4.78 lower wick, for a total range of $9.07. The close sits at 94% of the day's range — near the top. That combination (long lower wick, short upper wick, close near the high) reflects a session where sellers pushed price down to $130.17 early on, but buyers stepped in and drove price back up through the open and through the $135 IPO offer price to close near the day's high. It reads as a rejection of the intraday low rather than a low-conviction drift higher.

Support levels

• $135.00 — the IPO offer price, reclaimed intraday and now the first level to watch on any pullback
• $133.11 — Friday's close (prior close)
• $131.11 — the July 16 close
• $130.17 — today's intraday low

Resistance levels

• $139.14 — the July 13 close, just under today's high
• $139.24 — today's intraday high
• $145.30 — the July 10 close
• $149.47 — the July 7 close

Momentum interpretation

Bull scenario: SPCX holds above $135 and $133.11 on any dip and clears today's $139.24 high, opening a path toward the $145.30 and $149.47 closes from early July.

Bear scenario: SPCX loses the $133.11 prior close and today's $130.17 low, which would put the August 4 close of $125.33 back in play and reopen the early-August $108–$115 range.

Neutral scenario: price consolidates between the $133.11 prior close and the $139.24 high while the moving-average picture matures with more trading history.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX reversed a dip below its IPO offer price into a 4.23% up close, the second consecutive gain following last week's lockup-expiration volatility. The reversal off $130.17 and the close near the session high point to buying interest at lower prices, but with RSI-14 and the longer moving averages still not meaningful given the stock's short trading history, this reading rests on price structure and volume rather than a fuller technical picture. The next session's key levels are $133.11 to $135.00 on the downside and $139.24 on the upside — a close outside either would mark a shift from today's range.

Sources

1. Trump Will Not Reach an Agreement With Us, Iranian Conservative Claims: What Do Prediction Markets Say? — Benzinga
2. Rocket Lab Reports Earnings Tonight: What Do Prediction Markets Say About Neutron Launches in 2026? — Benzinga
3. SpaceX Stock Stalls Around IPO Price: What's Going On? — Benzinga
4. Retail Investors Bought the July Dip in These 5 Stocks: Schwab Data — Benzinga
5. SpaceX Earnings Highlights from Cathie Wood's ARK Invest — Benzinga
6. S&P 500 Earnings Growth May Be Less Impressive Than It Looks; SpaceX Short Squeeze; Inflation Data Ahead — Benzinga
7. SpaceX's First Lockup Expired Last Week. Why Didn't the Stock Crash? — The Motley Fool
8. Rocket Lab Stock Up 41% From Its July Low: Can Q2 Clear a Sky-High Bar? — Benzinga
9. SpaceX Will Fly the Same Falcon 9 Booster for an 18th Time Monday: Why Reusability Is Its Biggest Advantage — Benzinga
10. Veteran Investor Calls SpaceX a 'Highly Speculative Game,' Says Its Valuation Already Assumes Elon Musk Hits 'Pie in the Sky Goals' — Benzinga
11. QUICK SPARK: SpaceX Stock Looks to Open Back Above IPO Price — Benzinga
12. SpaceX Executive Says Starship Could Unlock Orbital AI Data Centers as Earth Faces Power, Land and Cooling Constraints — Benzinga
13. Cloudflare CTO Says Starlink Needs New Internet Traffic Rules Built for Satellites, Elon Musk Sends Idea to His Team — Benzinga
14. Ross Gerber Wants Elon Musk To Build a Starlink AI Phone With 'No Apps:' 'Just Does What You Tell It To' — Benzinga
15. Elon Musk Says AI Agents Will Dwarf Human Internet Traffic, But Michael Burry Asks, 'Who Will Pay' for AI Agents to Socialize? — Benzinga
16. Elon Musk Says Starlink Will Be in Every Car, Calls It the 'Only Way' To Connect Billions of Vehicles — Benzinga
17. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SPCX is a newly listed stock with a limited trading history; standard technical indicators are still maturing and should be weighed accordingly. Verify all figures independently before making any financial decision.