Nasdaq-100 Entry Faces Dilution Overhang From Locked-Up Shares

SPCX closed at $136.12, down 2.17% from the prior close of $139.14, after trading in a $135.52–$143.33 range on volume of 41.2 million shares.

Executive Summary

SPCX gave back Monday's bounce, closing at $136.12 and landing within roughly a percent of its $135 IPO offer price for the first time since the stock began trading. The session's headline flow centered on the company's newly announced Nasdaq-100 membership, with commentary noting that new index entrants have historically underperformed the benchmark over subsequent one- and two-year periods, and on concerns tied to the company's first debt issuance and upcoming insider lockup expirations. Coverage was split on valuation: Evercore ISI initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, and Morgan Stanley reportedly started coverage Overweight with a $300 target, while a separate piece framed Raymond James's $800 target and the stock's roughly 50x price-to-sales multiple as evidence of bubble-like pricing. Other commentary flagged the pending lockup expirations, heavy reliance on Starlink, and the company's first quarterly earnings report (expected early August) as the next real tests of the valuation.

Trading volume of 41.2 million shares was well below both the prior session's 71.6 million and the average volume to date of roughly 126 million, indicating today's decline came on lighter-than-typical participation.

News

1. Jeff Bezos Put $2 Billion of His Own Money Into Blue Origin's Funding Round

Jeff Bezos invested $2 billion into Blue Origin's $10 billion funding round at a $130 billion valuation. While the investment represents less than 1% of his wealth, the real significance lies in outside institutional investors like hedge fund Coatue committing capital, signaling that Blue Origin has matured from a vanity project into a legitimate business. The company's recent achievements, including successful NASA missions and government contracts, support this transition. (The Motley Fool, Jul 14, 3:31 PM ET)

2. A SpaceX Investment Today Could Be Worth Twice as Much Within 2 Years

SpaceX stock could plausibly double within two years if Starlink continues executing and one of the company's other major bets succeeds. However, this is achievable but not likely, with significant risks including Starship delays, heavy reliance on Starlink profitability, and a nearly $2 trillion valuation that leaves little room for error. The stock has already cooled from its post-debut high, declining over 30%. (The Motley Fool, Jul 14, 2:30 PM ET)

3. SpaceX Is Now a Member of the Nasdaq-100: Here's What History Says Happens Next

SpaceX was fast-tracked into the Nasdaq-100 index after rule changes, creating forced buyers through index funds. However, historical data shows new Nasdaq-100 entrants underperform the index by an average of 15% over one year and 32% over two years. SpaceX faces additional headwinds from massive share dilution ahead, as 95% of shares remain locked up and could flood the market over the next year. (The Motley Fool, Jul 14, 1:13 PM ET)

4. After SpaceX, XOVR ETF Bets $30 Million on Kalshi as Prediction Markets Heat Up

ERShares' XOVR ETF makes Kalshi one of its largest private holdings after SpaceX, reinforcing its strategy of investing before companies go public. (Benzinga, Jul 14, 11:54 AM ET)

5. Frontier Airlines To Introduce Onboard WiFi From Starlink Starting In Early 2027

(Benzinga, Jul 14, 9:06 AM ET)

6. 'SpaceX Is the Equivalent of Dogecoin,' Mark Yusko Says: 'And if Elon Sold 1 DOGE, It Would Go to Zero'

SpaceX IPO draws a Dogecoin comparison as Mark Yusko warns its $2 trillion valuation and limited float could leave retail exposed. (Benzinga, Jul 14, 8:42 AM ET)

7. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman Says Elon Musk Found a ‘Pretty Good Idea’ in Leasing SpaceXAI’s Unused Grok Capacity to Anthropic

Cerebras CEO blames Grok's weak early adoption for SpaceXAI's move to renting AI computing; Anthropic deal monetizes idle GPU capacity. (Benzinga, Jul 14, 8:39 AM ET)

8. How to Spot a Stock Market Bubble 101: Raymond James Just Placed an $800 Price Target on SpaceX, Valuing Elon Musk's Company at $10.5 Trillion

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale issued an $800 price target on SpaceX (implying 451% upside and a $10.5 trillion valuation), but the article argues this represents a classic stock market bubble. The author highlights concerns including SpaceX's unsustainable operating model, xAI's cash burn, Elon Musk's poor track record on promises, an unsustainably high price-to-sales ratio of 50x, and historical precedent showing game-changing technologies experience early-stage bubble bursts. (The Motley Fool, Jul 14, 7:06 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$140.95
High	$143.33
Low	$135.52
Close	$136.12
Change vs prior close	-2.17% ($139.14 → $136.12)
Volume	41,199,809
Intraday range	$7.81 ($135.52–$143.33)
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	+0.83%
Close vs IPO-day close ($160.95)	-15.42%

SPCX opened at $140.95, pushed to an intraday high of $143.33 in the early session, then reversed and spent the balance of the day sliding to a low of $135.52 before closing at $136.12, just 8% off the day's low. The close sits within roughly a dollar of the $135 IPO offer price and is down 15.4% from the stock's June 12 IPO-day close of $160.95. Volume of 41.2 million shares was about a third of the 125.97 million average traded per day since listing, and well below the prior session's 71.6 million. The session extends a decline that has now run five straight sessions, from a July 8 close of $148.30 to today's $136.12.

The one-line takeaway: SPCX closed near its IPO offer price for the first time, on a down day with lighter-than-average volume.

Technicals

SPCX has been trading for roughly a month, so standard longer-window indicators are not yet meaningful: the 14-day RSI reading below is based on a short and volatile sample, and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are not yet available (insufficient history). Readings here should be treated as early signal, not a mature technical picture. What follows leans on price structure, candle shape, volume, and the real levels in the data.

Trend

Short moving averages are all sloping down and stacked in bearish order: the 5-day SMA ($144.20) sits above the 5-day EMA ($143.34), which sits above today's close ($136.12), and both are well below the 10-day SMA ($152.13) and 20-day SMA ($161.41). Every short-term average available is above the current price, consistent with a stock in a sustained pullback since its mid-June peak. The daily close history shows a run from $201.80 (June 16) down to $136.12 today, with only brief counter-trend bounces (late June, June 29–30) along the way.

Candle read

Today's candle has a body of -4.83 against a total range of 7.81, an upper wick of 2.38, and a lower wick of only 0.6, with the close sitting at just 0.08 of the day's range (near the low). That combination — a small lower wick, a long upper wick, and a close pinned near the session low — describes a bearish candle with rejection at the highs: buyers pushed the stock to $143.33 early, sellers took control from there, and the stock never meaningfully bounced off its $135.52 low into the close.

Support levels

• $135.52 — today's intraday low
• $135.00 — the IPO offer price, a round-number level the stock is now testing for the first time
• $139.14 — today's failed level (yesterday's close, now acting as resistance rather than support if reclaimed)

Resistance levels

• $139.14 — prior close, now the first level to reclaim
• $140.95 — today's open
• $143.33 — today's intraday high
• $144.20 / $143.34 — 5-day SMA / EMA, both now overhead

Momentum interpretation

RSI-14 at 40.71 is below the 50 midpoint but not yet in oversold territory, leaving room for further downside without triggering a classic oversold signal on this short data history.

• Bull scenario: a reclaim of the $139.14 prior close and a push back through the 5-day SMA/EMA cluster near $143–$144 would be the first sign of stabilization; sustained trade above $140.95 would put the recent open back in play.
• Bear scenario: a close below the $135.52 intraday low and the $135.00 IPO offer price would put SPCX in uncharted territory below its own offering price, with no closing-price support in the available history below that level.
• Neutral scenario: continued chop between roughly $135 and $140 on below-average volume, similar to today's 41.2 million shares versus the 125.97 million average, without a decisive break of either the low or the prior-close resistance.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX's fifth straight down session brought the close within less than a dollar of its $135 IPO offer price, on volume well below both the prior day and the trailing average — a lower-conviction decline rather than a high-volume capitulation. The next session's key levels are the $135.52 low and $135.00 offer price on the downside, and the $139.14 prior close on the upside; a close outside either boundary would mark the next meaningful development in the post-IPO trend.

Sources

1. Jeff Bezos Put $2 Billion of His Own Money Into Blue Origin's Funding Round — The Motley Fool
2. A SpaceX Investment Today Could Be Worth Twice as Much Within 2 Years — The Motley Fool
3. SpaceX Is Now a Member of the Nasdaq-100: Here's What History Says Happens Next — The Motley Fool
4. After SpaceX, XOVR ETF Bets $30 Million on Kalshi as Prediction Markets Heat Up — Benzinga
5. Frontier Airlines To Introduce Onboard WiFi From Starlink Starting In Early 2027 — Benzinga
6. 'SpaceX Is the Equivalent of Dogecoin,' Mark Yusko Says: 'And if Elon Sold 1 DOGE, It Would Go to Zero' — Benzinga
7. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman Says Elon Musk Found a 'Pretty Good Idea' in Leasing SpaceXAI's Unused Grok Capacity to Anthropic — Benzinga
8. How to Spot a Stock Market Bubble 101: Raymond James Just Placed an $800 Price Target on SpaceX, Valuing Elon Musk's Company at $10.5 Trillion — The Motley Fool
9. Evercore ISI Group Initiates Coverage On SpaceX with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $230 — Benzinga
10. Rocket Lab Stock Climbs Nearly 3% in Pre-Market Trading After Critical Neutron Engine Test — Benzinga
11. Better Vertically Integrated Space Stock: SpaceX or Rocket Lab? — The Motley Fool
12. SpaceX Stock Nears IPO Price as Investors Weigh Debt Sale, Lockups — Investing.com
13. Peter Schiff Says SPCX's Decline Could Spell the End of AI Boom, 'Overpriced' US Stock Market: Ross Gerber Is Not Surprised — Benzinga
14. After Blasting Trump's Intel Deal, Gavin Newsom Jokes California Should Collect Tesla Shares for 'Corporate Welfare' Given to Elon Musk — Benzinga
15. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Market data and figures are sourced from Alpaca Markets and the cited news providers as of the timestamps noted above and may be delayed or subject to revision. Readers should verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.