Musk Targets $1 Trillion SpaceX Revenue By 2030

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) closed at $143.33 on August 18, 2026, down 1.98% from the prior session's $146.23.

Executive Summary

SPCX opened well below Tuesday's close, traded in a wide $7.05 range, and finished lower on the day even as it clawed back most of its opening gap. Volume came in light relative to recent sessions, suggesting the pullback reflected profit-taking after Monday and Tuesday's advance rather than a fresh wave of selling. The session played out against a backdrop of mixed headlines: Goldman Sachs projected a $1.8 trillion "Second Space Age" market by 2035, Elon Musk reiterated a target of $1 trillion in SpaceX revenue by 2030, and VinSpace Joint Stock Company confirmed a rideshare launch contract with SpaceX. Set against that, Bernstein flagged that SpaceX's AI-related valuation upside depends heavily on proving out full and rapid Starship reusability, and a Motley Fool piece argued the stock's price-to-sales ratio of roughly 83x looks stretched relative to peers, with one analyst modeling a path below $100 over the next year.

Two months removed from its June 12 IPO, SPCX remains in a volatile price-discovery phase, still trading below its first-day close of $160.95 but above its $135.00 IPO offer price. Today's session fits that pattern: a sharp intraday swing bracketing both bullish and bearish headlines, with the close landing in the upper half of the day's range.

News

1. Gary Black Says Tesla Bulls On Social Media Are Like College Students Doing 'Tequila Shots'

Gary Black thinks Tesla bulls on social media are too optimistic about the company's latest Cybercab news items. (Benzinga, Aug 18, 2:37 PM ET)

2. Goldman's 'Second Space Age' — $1.8 Trillion Global Market by 2035

Goldman Sachs sees a $1.8 trillion space economy by 2035, driven by collapsing launch costs, surging private and public-market funding. (Benzinga, Aug 18, 2:16 PM ET)

3. Elon Musk Says SpaceX Will Hit $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2030 -- 1 Year Faster Than the Original Timeline. Here's the Math Behind the New Number.

Elon Musk claims SpaceX will reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, requiring a 121.7% CAGR from 2025 levels. The company operates three segments: Starlink (61% of revenue), rocket launch services (22%), and AI business (17%). While analysts project $184.5 billion revenue by 2028, the $1 trillion target faces significant headwinds from competition and market uncertainties. (The Motley Fool, Aug 18, 1:25 PM ET)

4. Prediction: SpaceX Stock Will Be Worth This Much in 1 Year

SpaceX went public in June 2026 and has declined 35% from its peak to $144.52. While the company has significant long-term potential across space transportation, satellite internet (Starlink), and AI infrastructure businesses with a $28.5 trillion addressable market, analyst Anthony Di Pizio predicts the stock could fall below $100 over the next year due to its sky-high valuation. Trading at a P/S ratio of 83 (13x the Nasdaq-100), SpaceX appears overvalued relative to peers, and potential weakness in AI infrastructure demand could further pressure the stock. (The Motley Fool, Aug 18, 1:21 PM ET)

5. Which Space and Defense ETF Is the Better Buy: ARK's ARKX or First Trust's MISL?

ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX) delivers higher returns (28.8% over 1 year) but with significantly higher volatility and a 0.75% expense ratio, while First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF (MISL) offers steadier performance (22.6% returns) with lower costs (0.6% expense ratio) and reduced risk. ARKX is suited for aggressive investors backing Cathie Wood's innovation thesis, while MISL appeals to those seeking stable aerospace and defense exposure. (The Motley Fool, Aug 18, 1:15 PM ET)

6. AI's Half-Trillion-Dollar Borrowing Binge Is Competing With Uncle Sam for Bond Buyers

Four companies, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Oracle dominate AI bond supply, expected to reach $400B in 2027. Investors push back on prices. (Benzinga, Aug 18, 12:00 PM ET)

7. UPDATE: VinSpace Inks Contract With SpaceX Was Announced On August 11, 2026

(Benzinga, Aug 18, 11:18 AM ET)

8. VinSpace Joint Stock Company Inks Contract With SpaceX To Launch Satellites Aboard Transporter Rideshare Mission Next Year

(Benzinga, Aug 18, 11:12 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$140.73
High	$146.46
Low	$139.41
Close	$143.33
Change vs prior close	-1.98% (prior close $146.23)
Volume	74,855,482
Intraday range	$139.41 - $146.46
Close vs IPO	+6.17% vs IPO offer price ($135.00); -10.95% vs IPO close ($160.95)

SPCX gapped down at the open to $140.73, roughly 3.8% below Tuesday's $146.23 close, then rallied through the session to a high of $146.46 before fading into the close at $143.33. The $7.05 intraday range is wide relative to recent sessions, and the stock traded on both sides of Tuesday's close before settling lower. Volume of 74.86 million shares ran well below the 115.81 million trailing average, roughly 35% lighter, consistent with a session driven more by intraday repositioning than heavy net selling. Against the IPO markers, the stock remains above its $135.00 offer price but almost 11% below its $160.95 first-day close.

The day's net decline came on lighter-than-average volume despite a full round-trip from the lows back near the prior close.

Technicals

SPCX is roughly two months removed from its June 12 IPO. Its longer-horizon moving averages (50-day, 200-day) are not yet available given the limited trading history, and even the shorter-window readings below should be treated as early-stage signals from a stock still finding its footing rather than confirmation of an established trend. The read here leans on price structure, candle shape, volume, and the real levels the stock has actually traded at.

Trend

Short-term moving averages are stacked in bullish order: the 5-day SMA sits at $143.40, the 10-day SMA at $134.53, and the 20-day SMA at $124.84, with today's $143.33 close landing essentially in line with the 5-day average and well above the 10- and 20-day readings. That reflects the broader recovery since early August, when the stock closed as low as $108.27 on August 5 before rallying through $133.11, $138.74, and $146.15 over the following two weeks. Today's pullback interrupts that climb without breaking it: price is still holding above both the 10- and 20-day averages.

Candle read

The session produced a body of $2.60 (close above open) with a $3.13 upper wick and a $1.32 lower wick on a $7.05 total range, placing the close at 56% of the day's range, in the upper-middle. The candle shape shows the stock opening on a gap down, rallying hard enough to almost fully retrace the gap and test above Tuesday's close, then getting rejected from the $146.46 high and giving back part of the advance into the close. The long upper wick relative to the body signals sellers stepping in on the push toward the recent highs, even as the higher low and recovery off the open point to buyers defending the dip.

Support levels

• $140.00 - round-number level near today's open ($140.73) and the August 14 close ($140.00)
• $139.41 - today's intraday low
• $138.74 - the August 10 close
• $135.00 - the IPO offer price, the stock's original pricing level

Resistance levels

• $145.00 - round-number level above today's close
• $146.15-$146.46 - cluster formed by the August 12 close ($146.15), the prior close ($146.23), and today's high ($146.46)
• $150.00 - next round-number level above the recent trading band

Momentum interpretation

Bull scenario: a close back above the $146.15-$146.46 resistance cluster would reclaim Tuesday's level and put the round-number $150.00 mark in view, continuing the recovery trend visible in the rising short-term averages.

Bear scenario: a break below today's $139.41 low, and particularly a close under the $138.74 August 10 level, would mark a failed retest of the recent highs and could open a retest of the $135.00 IPO offer price.

Neutral scenario: continued chop between roughly $139 and $146 while the shorter moving averages consolidate, consistent with a young, still-volatile issue absorbing mixed fundamental headlines without a clear directional resolution.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX pulled back on a gap-down open but spent the session working back toward the prior close before fading into the final print, a pattern consistent with two-sided positioning rather than a clean trend day. The stock remains above its $135.00 IPO offer price and above its rising 10- and 20-day averages, but well below both its $160.95 first-day close and the $146.15-$146.46 resistance it was rejected from today. The next session's key levels to watch are support at $139.41-$138.74 and resistance at $146.15-$146.46; a decisive move through either would clarify whether today's pullback was a pause within the recent recovery or the start of a deeper retracement.

Sources

1. Gary Black Says Tesla Bulls On Social Media Are Like College Students Doing 'Tequila Shots' - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/markets/large-cap/26/08/61284469/gary-black-says-tesla-bulls-on-social-media-are-like-college-students-doing-tequila-shots
2. Goldman's 'Second Space Age' - $1.8 Trillion Global Market by 2035 - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/08/61283882/goldmans-second-space-age-1-8-trillion-global-market-by-2035
3. Elon Musk Says SpaceX Will Hit $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2030 -- 1 Year Faster Than the Original Timeline. Here's the Math Behind the New Number. - The Motley Fool - https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/18/elon-musk-says-spacex-will-hit-1-trillion-in-reven/?source=iedfolrf0000001
4. Prediction: SpaceX Stock Will Be Worth This Much in 1 Year - The Motley Fool - https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/18/prediction-spacex-stock-will-be-worth-much-1-year/?source=iedfolrf0000001
5. Which Space and Defense ETF Is the Better Buy: ARK's ARKX or First Trust's MISL? - The Motley Fool - https://www.fool.com/coverage/etfs/2026/08/18/which-space-and-defense-etf-is-the-better-buy-ark-s-arkx-or-first-trust-s-misl/?source=iedfolrf0000001
6. AI's Half-Trillion-Dollar Borrowing Binge Is Competing With Uncle Sam for Bond Buyers - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/26/08/61279800/ais-half-trillion-dollar-borrowing-binge-is-competing-with-uncle-sam-for-bond-buyers
7. UPDATE: VinSpace Inks Contract With SpaceX Was Announced On August 11, 2026 - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/quote/SPCX
8. VinSpace Joint Stock Company Inks Contract With SpaceX To Launch Satellites Aboard Transporter Rideshare Mission Next Year - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/08/61277932/vinspace-joint-stock-company-inks-contract-spacex-launch-satellites-aboard-transporter-rideshare-mis
9. Can Space Stocks Bounce Back? This $1 Billion Air Force Contract Might Help. - The Motley Fool - https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/18/can-1-billion-contract-help-space-stocks-bounce/?source=iedfolrf0000001
10. Former Tesla President Says Roadster Demo Could Be a 'Not-So-Hidden Attempt' to Knit TSLA and SPCX Together: 'Probably Sooner Rather Than Later' - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/08/61267260/former-tesla-president-says-roadster-demo-could-be-a-not-so-hidden-attempt-to-knit-tsla-and-spcx-together-probably-sooner-rather-than-later
11. ChronicleBio Cofounder Fidji Simo Says AI Could Transform Disease Treatment, But Smarter Models Aren't Enough - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/news/health-care/26/08/61266354/fidji-simo-ai-cures
12. SPCX's AI Dreams Hinge on One Huge Starship Test, Bernstein Says: Full Reusability Is 'Absolutely Central' to Long-Term Valuation Upside - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/news/space/26/08/61266063/spcxs-ai-dreams-hinge-on-one-huge-starship-test-bernstein-says-full-reusability-is-absolutely-central-to-long-term-valuation-upside
13. Elon Musk Responds After Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Credits SpaceX With Saving Thousands of Lives - Benzinga - https://www.benzinga.com/news/space/26/08/61264672/elon-musk-responds-after-former-ukrainian-defense-minister-credits-spacex-with-saving-thousands-of-lives
14. Alpaca Markets (SIP) - market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SPCX is a newly public, volatile issue with limited trading history; the technical readings above are based on a short data window and should be weighed accordingly. Verify all data independently before making any financial decision.