Morgan Stanley Sees 70% Upside on Starbase Plan

SPCX closed at $139.57 on August 26, 2026, up 1.17% from the prior close of $137.95.

Executive Summary

SPCX advanced for a second straight session, closing at $139.57 after trading between $135.10 and $140.18. The stock opened at $137.00, dipped toward the session low early, then recovered to close near the top of its range. Volume came in at 54,575,298 shares, roughly in line with the prior day's 53,144,017 but still well below the stock's running average of 117,178,121 — the bounce came on lighter-than-typical participation.

News flow around the session was heavy on SpaceX's forward plans rather than near-term financials. Benzinga reported Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas arguing SpaceX bulls "aren't thinking big enough" and citing a $100 billion Starbase spaceport plan in Louisiana; The Motley Fool separately detailed that Louisiana project (125,000 acres, five launch complexes, construction starting 2027) alongside Q2 2026 figures of $7.8 billion in revenue and $28.5 billion in first-half capital expenditure. Other headlines covered SpaceX winding down Falcon 9 Starlink launches from Florida in favor of Starship, and commentary on Musk's satellite-constellation ambitions. None of this news carries confirmed same-day financial impact data beyond what's captured in the price action below.

News

1. SpaceX Bulls Aren't Thinking Big Enough, Morgan Stanley Says

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas predicts 70% upside for SPCX stock as SpaceX unveils $100 billion Starbase plan in Louisiana. (Benzinga, Aug 26, 3:09 PM ET)

2. Why Is AST SpaceMobile Stock Falling on Wednesday?

AST SpaceMobile stock fell Wednesday after SpaceX announced changes to its launch operations, raising market concerns. (Benzinga, Aug 26, 2:01 PM ET)

3. 'Japan seeks more H3 rocket launches to chase SpaceX' - Nikkei Asia

(Benzinga, Aug 26, 12:44 PM ET)

4. Will Bloom Energy Be the Next SpaceX? What the Numbers Actually Say.

Bloom Energy's stock has surged 1,780% over two years, driven by strong demand from AI and cloud companies for its solid oxide fuel cells. With a $20 billion backlog and expected 70% revenue CAGR through 2028, the company is positioned as a leader in utility-scale fuel cell deployments. While trading at a premium valuation (71x adjusted EBITDA), analysts suggest it could outperform SpaceX as an investment due to its simpler business model and less competitive niche market. (The Motley Fool, Aug 26, 12:05 PM ET)

5. Elon Musk's Million-Satellite AI Vision Could Require 9 Starship Launches a Day

Elon Musk’s million-satellite Starmind vision could require nine Starship launches a day as SpaceX pushes AI data centers into orbi (Benzinga, Aug 26, 11:31 AM ET)

6. SpaceX Wants Millions of AI Satellites in Orbit—But Experts Say Elon Musk Must Solve a ‘Crazy’ Logistics Problem First

SpaceX may need 9+ Starship launches daily to build its planned 1 million-satellite Starmind constellation, expert says. (Benzinga, Aug 26, 7:48 AM ET)

7. Jim Cramer: 'Put This Stock Away, Give It to Your Kids'

Reddit is "such a buy," Cramer said. The "Mad Money" host also looked at ServiceNow, First Solar, Sunbelt Rentals and Super Micro Computer. (Benzinga, Aug 26, 7:21 AM ET)

8. Prediction: This Upcoming IPO Will Be Even Bigger Than SpaceX

Anthropic is reportedly targeting an IPO in late 2026 at a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, which would surpass SpaceX's record for largest IPO valuation. The AI company has achieved a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate with exponential growth, and the author predicts it will raise at least $150 billion, breaking SpaceX's IPO records for both valuation and capital raised. (The Motley Fool, Aug 26, 7:17 AM ET)

Price Action

Metric	Value
Open	$137.00
High	$140.18
Low	$135.10
Close	$139.57
Change vs prior close	+1.17% ($137.95 → $139.57)
Volume	54,575,298
Intraday range	$5.08 ($135.10–$140.18)
Close vs IPO offer price ($135.00)	+3.39%

SPCX traded in a $5.08 range on the session, opening at $137.00, dipping to a low of $135.10, and pushing to a high of $140.18 before settling at $139.57. That close sits 3.39% above the $135.00 IPO offer price but remains 13.29% below the stock's first-day close of $160.95 on June 12, 2026. Volume of 54,575,298 shares was about 2.7% above the prior session's 53,144,017 but ran at roughly 46% of the 117,178,121-share average to date, indicating the move was not accompanied by a surge in participation.

The session closed higher for a second straight day, reclaiming ground from the prior close on below-average volume.

Technicals

SPCX has under three months of trading history since its June 12, 2026 IPO. The 200-day moving average is not yet available — there isn't enough price history to compute it. The 14-day RSI and the 5/10/20/50-day moving averages are computable at this point, but they span a period that included an initial post-IPO spike to $201.80 and a subsequent slide below $110, so these readings should be treated as indicative rather than fully mature signals.

Trend

Since the June 12, 2026 IPO close of $160.95, SPCX ran up to $201.80 by June 16, then declined for most of July into early August, bottoming near $108.27 on August 5. From there the stock rallied to a swing high of $146.23 on August 17, pulled back to $134.00 on August 20, and has since strung together gains: $136.97 (Aug 21), $135.00 (Aug 24), $137.95 (Aug 25), and today's $139.57. The close now sits above the 5-day SMA ($136.70), the 5-day EMA ($138.09), and the 20-day SMA ($131.45), and is essentially at the 50-day SMA ($139.79) and just above the 10-day SMA ($139.40) — a short-term recovery testing the 50-day average from below within a longer downtrend off the June highs.

Candle read

Today's candle had a body of $2.57 (open $137.00 to close $139.57), an upper wick of $0.61, and a lower wick of $1.90, on a total range of $5.08. The close location of 0.88 means the close landed near the top of the session's range — price was pushed down toward $135.10 at some point in the session but buyers stepped back in and drove it to a close just below the high. That is a bullish-leaning candle: a larger lower wick than upper wick with the close near the top of the range.

Support levels

• $137.95 — prior close, reclaimed intraday
• $135.10 — today's intraday low, close to the $135.00 IPO offer price and the August 24 close of $135.00, forming a support cluster
• $134.00 — the August 20 swing-low close
• $136.70 — the 5-day SMA, as a short-term dynamic support

Resistance levels

• $140.18 — today's intraday high
• $139.79 — the 50-day SMA, sitting right at today's close
• $141.29 — the August 13 close
• $143.34 — the August 18 close
• $146.23 — the August 17 swing high, near the $146.15 August 12 close

Momentum interpretation

RSI-14 reads 53.48, a neutral level — neither overbought nor oversold.

Bull scenario: a close that holds above the 50-day SMA ($139.79) and clears today's high ($140.18) would open room toward the $141.29 and $143.34 closes from earlier in August.

Bear scenario: rejection at the 50-day SMA/today's high, followed by a close back below the 5-day SMA ($136.70) and the prior close ($137.95), would put the $135.10–$135.00 support cluster back in play.

Neutral scenario: continued rotation inside the $135–$140 band without a decisive break, consistent with today's below-average volume (roughly 46% of the running average), which suggests limited conviction behind the move either way.

Trading Takeaway

SPCX bounced off the $135 area — a level reinforced by the IPO offer price and a recent close — to finish up 1.17% at $139.57, near the session high and right at the 50-day SMA. The move came on volume well under the stock's running average, which tempers how much weight to put on the breakout attempt. The next session's key levels to watch are resistance at $140.18/$139.79 (50-day SMA) above, and support at $137.95 and the $135.10–$135.00 cluster below.

Sources

1. SpaceX Bulls Aren't Thinking Big Enough, Morgan Stanley Says — Benzinga
2. Why Is AST SpaceMobile Stock Falling on Wednesday? — Benzinga
3. 'Japan seeks more H3 rocket launches to chase SpaceX' - Nikkei Asia — Benzinga
4. Will Bloom Energy Be the Next SpaceX? What the Numbers Actually Say. — The Motley Fool
5. Elon Musk's Million-Satellite AI Vision Could Require 9 Starship Launches a Day — Benzinga
6. SpaceX Wants Millions of AI Satellites in Orbit—But Experts Say Elon Musk Must Solve a 'Crazy' Logistics Problem First — Benzinga
7. Jim Cramer: 'Put This Stock Away, Give It to Your Kids' — Benzinga
8. Prediction: This Upcoming IPO Will Be Even Bigger Than SpaceX — The Motley Fool
9. 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Can Skyrocket Up to 484%, According to Select Wall Street Analysts — The Motley Fool
10. SpaceX Announces The Deployment Of 27 Starlink Satellites — Benzinga
11. SpaceX Just Announced a $100 Billion Starship Spaceport in Louisiana. Here's What It Means for Investors. — The Motley Fool
12. SpaceX Ends Falcon 9 Starlink Launches From Florida As Starship Takes Over: 'End Of An Era' — Benzinga
13. Peter Beck's Neutron Rocket Could Slip to 2027. Here's How Much the Delay Actually Matters. — The Motley Fool
14. Elon Musk Says 1 Million Optimus Robots, 1 GW of Solar Could Drive Galaxy-Wide Expansion As SpaceX's Starbase Louisiana Targets First Launch in 2029 — Benzinga
15. Alpaca Markets (SIP) — market data

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Market data and figures are sourced from Alpaca Markets and the cited news outlets as of the timestamps noted; verify all figures independently before making any financial decision. SPCX has a limited trading history, and past price behavior does not predict future results.